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Micron Technology (MU) is scheduled to report results of its fiscal fourth quarter after the market close on Wednesday, September 25, with a conference call scheduled for 4:30 pm ET. What to watch for:

GUIDANCE: Along with its last report, Micron guided for Q4 earnings per share of $1.08, plus or minus 8c, onr evenue of $7.6B, plus or minus $200M. At the time, analysts were expecting the company to report Q4 EPS of $1.05 on revenue of $7.6B, but those figures have since risen to $1.13 and $7.63B, respectively.

CITI NOTES BEARISH INVESTORS: Based on many conversations with investors last week, Citi said it estimates roughly 80% of investors are bearish on Micron into its quarterly report. The firm said that every hedge fund it spoke with are negative while a few mutual funds are positive into the earnings print. The analyst believes the expectations for November quarter guidance from buy-side investors are roughly in line or slightly below Citi's newly revised estimates of $8.0B on revenue and $1.24 earnings per share, which is mid-single digit quarter-over-quarter growth. The consensus is $8.3B and $1.30, respectively. The firm keeps a Buy rating on Micron with a $150 price target.

TD COWEN, STIFEL CUT TARGETS: Meanwhile, TD Cowen last week lowered the firm's price target on Micron to $115 from $160 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said they like the setup given the negative sentiment and stable long-term fundamentals amid what looks like a mid-cycle correction. They see a lot of similarities between the current setup and that of late 2021 where shares went up 40% in three months.

The same day, Stifel lowered its target on icron to $135 from $165 with a Buy rating. It's been roughly a year since memory prices bottomed and in recent months there are signs that average selling price, or ASP, strength is moderating, notes the analyst, who believes HBM demand is intact and calls for oversupply next year "are unsubstantiated." However, consumer electronics sell-through and more importantly, mix, has "underwhelmed," which may create a lull in the market over the next few quarters, adds the analyst. Given the pullback in the shares and valuation, the firm believes expectations have reset into the print, the analyst tells investors in a preview.

WELLS SAYS DRAM CONCERNS OVERDONE: Last Wednesday, Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Micron to $175 from $190 and maintained an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm de-risked forward estimates into Micron's fiscal Q4 report on September 25 but views concerns around a DRAM downcycle in the first half of 2025 as overdone. The company is still early in its high bandwidth memory inflection and the non-HBM DRAM tightness is still underappreciated, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Wells says increasing HBM mix and to a lesser extent traditional DRAM supply tightness should drive continued margin expansion at Micron.

ITC PROBE: In early August, the U.S. International Trade Commission announced that it voted to institute an investigation of certain NAND memory devices and electronic devices containing the same. The investigation is based on a complaint filed by MimirIP LLC, of Dallas, TX, on July 8, 2024, and supplemented on July 26, 2024. The complaint alleges violations of section 337 of the Tariff Act of 1930 in the importation into the United States and sale of certain NAND memory devices and electronic devices containing the same that infringe patents asserted by the complainant. The complainant requests that the USITC issue a limited exclusion order and cease and desist orders. The USITC has identified the following respondents in this investigation: Micron, Acer, Acer America, HP (HPQ), Kingston Technology, Lenovo Group (LNVGY), Lenovo U.S. By instituting this investigation, the USITC has not yet made any decision on the merits of the case. The USITC's Chief Administrative Law Judge will assign the case to one of the USITC's administrative law judges, who will schedule and hold an evidentiary hearing. The ALJ will make an initial determination as to whether there is a violation of section 337; that initial determination is subject to review by the Commission. The USITC will make a final determination in the investigation at the earliest practicable time, it said.

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