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Intel (INTC) is scheduled to report results of its fiscal fourth quarter after the market close on January 30, with a conference call scheduled for 5:00 pm ET. What to watch for:

GUIDANCE: Along with its last report, Intel guided for Q4 adjusted earnings per share of 12c on revenue of $13.3B-$14.3B. At the time, analysts were expecting the company to report Q4 EPS of 8c on revenue of $13.66B, but those figures have since risen to 12c and $13.83B, respectively.

TAKEOVER ATTEMPT: In mid-January, SemiAccurate said it was read an email about a company trying to acquire all of Intel, reports Charlie Demerjian. "We have absolute faith in the accuracy of this email but it took months to confirm it," according to Demerjian. Last week the website got confirmation, directly, "from another highly placed source" of the email's authenticity. " This mystery company has the resources to pull it off, especially at Intel's current valuation too," SemiAccurate adds.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg's Mackenzie Hawkins reported the same day that an idea that has gotten some attention from senior government officials is a possible deal between Intel and GlobalFoundries (GFS), according to people familiar with the conversations. Some officials think GlobalFoundries could be a "compelling partner" because it's already a trusted Pentagon supplier, the people said, and Intel has a $3B agreement to make chips for the military, Bloomberg said at the time. GlobalFoundries is also the only other major chip foundry based in the U.S., so the result would be one American company. However, a potential hitch is Mubadala Investment, the investment arm of the Abu Dhabi government, which owns about 80% of GlobalFoundries. While the idea has come up in multiple meetings between government and GlobalFoundries officials over the past several months, plans haven't progressed much past a thought exercise, sources told Bloomberg.

Following the two reports, Citi told investors in a research note that Tesla (TSLA) founder Elon Musk was reportedly mentioned as a potential buyer of Intel behind the paywall of SemiAccurate. Citi would view this as a "poor outcome" for Intel unless it was able to hire a CEO who would exit the merchant foundry business and have the three qualifications of advanced manufacturing experience, technical acumen, and Intel experience, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm maintained a Neutral rating on Intel with a $22 price target at the time, though cut its price target to $21 a week later.

Additionally, Citi also said that the the most likely company interested in a wholesale takeout of Intel would be Broadcom (AVGO). Citi would view a Broadcom takeover of Intel positively as it believes Broadcom would immediately jettison the merchant foundry business and focus on microprocessors. The company would also cut expenses and make Intel a very profitable unit with operating margins in the 40's, which would be 28% accretive to Broadcom, the analyst tells investors in a research note. However, the firm doubts the U.S. government would approve a deal given their stated interest in Intel developing a merchant foundry, and added that it views a wholesale takeover of Intel as unlikely.

WEDBUSH UPS PRICE TARGET: Earlier this week, Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson lowered the firm's price target on Intel to $20 from $25 and kept a Neutral rating on the shares ahead of the earnings report. The firm reduced estimates in 2025 and beyond to account for Intel's non-controlling interest in the fabs beginning to impact earnings. Wedbush expects a relatively in-line Q4, saying some pull forward demand ahead of potential tariffs may have offset relatively weak client end markets as well as continued share loss in servers and PCs. Intel will see continued share loss in data center environments as AMD (AMD) realizes greater share gains with Turin, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

HSBC UPGRADE: Last week, HSBC upgraded Intel to Hold from Reduce with a $20 price target. The stock is now fairly priced, as recent uncertainties relating to execution of the "IDM 2.0" strategy as well as top management attrition are reflected in the shares, the analyst tells investors in a research note. HSBC sees limited downside from current levels with Intel down nearly 40% from the July peak. While the firm acknowledges that the "worst seems to be over" for Intel and all headwinds from the past few months seem to be priced in, it says it remains early to have a clear view on its execution leading to overall recovery of the business.

CEO RETIREMENT: In early December, announced that CEO Pat Gelsinger retired from the company after a 40-plus-year career and has stepped down from the board of directors, effective Dec. 1. Intel has named two senior leaders, David Zinsner and Michelle Johnston Holthaus, as interim co-chief executive officers while the board of directors conducts a search for a new CEO. Zinsner is executive vice president and chief financial officer, and Holthaus has been appointed to the newly created position of CEO of Intel Products, a group that encompasses the company's client computing group, data center and AI Group and network and edge group. Frank Yeary, independent chair of the board of Intel, will become interim executive chair during the period of transition. Intel Foundry leadership structure remains unchanged. The board has formed a search committee and will work diligently and expeditiously to find a permanent successor to Gelsinger.

About a week later, the Wall Street Journal's Dan Gallagher reported that Marvell (MRVL) CEO Matt Murphy has been floated as a potential candidate to replace Gelsinger. At the same time, Murphy, who has served as Marvell's CEO since 2016, said on the company's December 3 call that he "can't think of a better place to work than Marvell."

INTEL CAPITAL: In mid-January, Intel announced its intention to separate Intel Capital, its global venture capital arm, into a standalone fund. The new fund will bring Intel Capital's corporate structure into alignment with other leading venture firms, enabling greater autonomy and the flexibility to attract external capital, the company said. Intel will remain an anchor investor in the new company. "The separation of Intel Capital is a win-win scenario as it provides the fund with access to new sources of capital to expand its franchise while allowing both companies to continue benefiting from a productive long-term strategic partnership," said David Zinsner, interim co-chief executive officer and chief financial officer of Intel. "This step supports our broader strategy to maximize the value of our assets while driving greater focus and efficiency across the business." Standalone operations are expected to begin in the second half of 2025, at which time Intel Capital will operate under a new name. The existing Intel Capital team will move to the new company, and business operations will continue as normal throughout the transition.

TRUMP TARIFFS: U.S. President Donald Trump said he is looking to enforce tariffs that are "much bigger" than 2.5%, telling reporters aboard Air Force One Monday night that "I have it in my mind what it's going to be but I won't be setting it yet, but it'll be enough to protect our country," Bloomberg's Stephanie Lai, Billy House, and Josh Wingrove reported earlier this week. Asked about a report that incoming Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent favored starting with a global rate of 2.5%, Trump said he didn't think Bessent supported that and wouldn't favor it himself, and said he wanted a rate "much bigger" than 2.5%. Trump pledged tariffs on specific sectors, including semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, steel, copper and aluminum, and strongly suggested he could also impose them on automobiles from Canada and Mexico, countries he's already threatened with 25% across-the board tariffs as soon as February 1.

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