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Vanguard is forecasting annualized returns for the next 10 years. With optimism around AI but high valuations for US equities, this study is highlighting a lower expected return in the 3.90%-5.90% range for US equities, far below the expected average of 9-10% annualized return advertised by many firms. The group is more optimistic about US Small-Cap and US Value stocks over the period. US Growth and US REITs have among the lowest return expectations for the period.

Source: Vanguard Investment Strategy Group
This graph does not indicate volatility of returns. The projections and other information generated by the VCMM regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results. Distribution of return outcomes from VCMM are derived from 10,000 simulations for each modeled asset class. Simulations are as of December 31, 2025. Results from the model may vary with each use and over time. These return assumptions are based on a 10-year forecast and depend on current market conditions and, as such, may change over time. This graph was produced by Lucas Juery, CFA, CFP^Ⓡ and is not intended to provide financial advice.

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