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Ford (F - Free Report) is slated to release first-quarter 2024 results on Apr 24, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s sales and earnings is pegged at $40.64 billion and 42 cents per share, respectively.

The bottom-line projection implies a year-over-year decline of 33.33%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ford’s first-quarter earnings per share has moved down 2 cents in the past 30 days. Its top-line projection implies a year-over-year rise of 3.97%.

Over the trailing four quarters, the U.S. auto biggie surpassed earnings estimates thrice and missed once, the average surprise being 59.46%. This is depicted in the graph below:

Ford Motor Company Price and EPS Surprise

Ford Motor Company price-eps-surprise | Ford Motor Company Quote

Q4 Highlights

Ford reported adjusted earnings of 29 cents per share for fourth-quarter 2023, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 12 cents but fell from 51 cents recorded in the year-ago quarter. The company’s consolidated fourth-quarter revenues came in at $46 billion, rising 4.5% year over year.

Ford reported an adjusted free cash flow of $1.96 billion during the quarter. It had cash and cash equivalents of $24.86 billion as of Dec 31, 2023. Long-term debt, excluding Ford Credit, totaled $19.5 billion at the end of the fourth quarter of 2023.

Factors at Play

In the first quarter, Ford sold 508,083 vehicles in the United States, up 7% year over year. Sales of Ford brand and Lincoln rose 5.7% and 31.5% year over year, respectively.

The automaker sold 38,421 units of hybrid vehicles in the first quarter, up 42% year over year. With the sales of EVs, which increased 86.1% to 20,223 year over year in the first quarter, Ford became America’s second best-selling EV brand for the quarter. Sales of Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning reached 9,589 and 7,743 units in the first quarter, up 77% and 80% year over year, respectively.

Sales of Escape, Bronco Sport and Expedition increased 73%, 6% and 11% from the year-ago period, respectively. The year-over-year sales of Ford SUVs increased 15.3%. An increase in year-over-year SUV sales is likely to have bolstered the result of the first quarter.

On the flip side, while Ford’s massive investments in green vehicles and self-driving cars will prove beneficial in the long term, it is likely to strain its near-term results. The automaker’s massive spending on modernization, including connectivity, IT and new product launches, is expected to limit cash flows in the first quarter. For full-year 2024, F expects an EBIT loss of $5-$5.5 billion for Ford Model e. The higher expected loss in the Model e segment is likely to hurt the result of the to-be-reported quarter.

Here's a sneak peek at the firm’s key revenue and adjusted EBIT projections for the to-be-reported quarter.

Our estimate for quarterly revenues from the Ford Blue segment, which has the highest contribution to the company’s revenues, is pegged at $22.96 billion, suggesting a decline from $25.12 billion recorded in the prior-year quarter. Our estimate for quarterly revenues from Ford Model e is pegged at $2.39 billion, indicating a rise from $707 million recorded in the year-ago quarter.

Our estimate for quarterly revenues from Ford Pro is pegged at $14.93 billion, indicating a rise from $13.25 billion recorded in the year-ago period. Our estimate for quarterly revenues from Ford Credit is pegged at $2.74 billion, indicating a rise from $2.39 billion reported in the year-ago quarter.

Our estimate for quarterly adjusted EBIT from the Ford Blue segment is pegged at $1.92 billion, suggesting a decline from $2.62 billion recorded in the prior-year quarter. Our estimate for quarterly adjusted EBIT loss from Ford Model e has widened to $1.26 billion compared with the year-ago quarter’s loss of $722 million.

Our estimate for quarterly adjusted EBIT from Ford Pro is pegged at $1.94 billion, suggesting a rise from $1.36 billion recorded in the year-ago period. Our estimate for quarterly EBIT from Ford Credit is pegged at $358.5 million, indicating a rise from $303 million reported in the year-ago period.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Ford for the to-be-reported quarter, as it does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Ford has an Earnings ESP of -39.90%. The Most Accurate Estimate is pegged lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: F currently has a Zacks Rank #3.

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