Five Pharma Picks For 2016: Credit Suisse
2015 has been a turbulent year for pharma stocks. Deals have helped the sector remain in favor, but concerns about pricing and the Valeant scandal are just two of the factors that have tarred the sector’s reputation, bringing valuations back to earth.
Analysts at Credit Suisse believe that 2016 is set to be yet another volatile year for the sector, especially small and mid-cap names. However, they believe that seven pharmaceutical names have what it takes to outperform via a combination of strong product stories, near-term pivotal catalysts, financial strength and experienced management teams.
Portola (PTLA) and Alkermes (ALKS) are the bank’s top small and mid-cap pharma picks for 2016. PTLA is awaiting the Mar 2016 phase 3 data release from its betrixaban APEX Study in the acute medically ill population. Credit Suisse’s pharma analysts see a high likelihood of success for this study, and are also encouraged by the progress PTLA is making on andexanet alfa’s commercial manufacturing ahead of its 2016 launch.
When it comes to ALKS, analysts believe that the market is underappreciating ALKS’s pipeline. Specifically, analysts believe that the market hasn’t fully grasped the potential of the company’s ALKS 5461 treatment. Three phase 3 studies of this drug will be completed during the first half of 2016.
Pharma pick 1: Alkermes
As mentioned above, one of Credit Suisse’s two top pharma picks for 2016 is Alkermes (ADMS). With an enterprise value of just under $12 billion, Alkermes is hardly a small-cap but the company is expected to report positive EPS until FY 2017. Still, Credit Sussie sees four main catalysts for the stock during 2016; (1) Phase 3 data for ALKS 5461 (1H 2016); (2) Uptake of Aristada; (3) Phase 3 data for ALKS 3831; (4) Launch tracking of Invega Trinza.
ALKS 5461 is undoubtedly Alkermes’ most important treatment as it is expected to account for the majority of the company’s growth going forward. Credit Suisse sees a 75% chance of this drug successfully passing through its Phase 3 studies later in the year. A positive commercial launch or commercial partnership with ALKS 5461 could see Alkermes’ shares hit $94 in the best-case.
Pharma pick 2: Portola
Credit Sussie’s second top pick for 2016 is Portola (PTLA). Just like Alkermes, Portola has a number of positive catalysts ahead of it this year, including the publication of its Betrixaban drug Phase 3 data and the potential uptake of Andexanet alfa. Together, these key treatments are worth around $46/share according to Credit Suisse’s analysis.
Betrixaban is the key value driver with APEX study data expected in 1Q 2016 while Andexanet alfa has Breakthrough Therapy Designation from FDA and highly likely to be approved as first-in-class FXa anticoagulant antidote. Betrixaban approval and launch uptake is expected to start during 2017. Assuming everything goes to plan during 2016, Credit Sussie has a bull case price target of $74 on Portola’s stock.
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Pharma pick 3: Esperion
Stock number three is Esperion (ESPR), a blue sky pick that Credit Suisse does not expect to be profitable on a continuing basis until 2021.
Esperion’s most attractive quality right now is the company’s management team, which has a deep understanding of the cholesterol market. The company is expecting the results of a Phase 2 study (mid-2016) showing the effectiveness of its key product ETC-1002 when combined with high-dose statins. If the Phase 2 study is positive and the following Phase 3 study results are supportive, then there is good reason to believe that the FDA would be comfortable with a targeted approval for ETC-1002 prior to the completion of the cardiovascular outcomes study. If the Phase 2 study results do show positive results, Credit Suisse projects ETC-1002 could hit the market by 2018, with relatively muted uptake until the CVOT data is available 2-3 years later. So, 2016 is set to be a big year for Esperion.
Pharma pick 4: Adamas
Adamas (ADMS) is awaiting the Topline Phase 3 EASE LID data for its ADS-5102 treatment, which is expected during the first three months of 2016. Peak sales for ADS-5102 could reach $250 million assuming higher probability of success, strong pricing, and/or higher patient penetration given the drug’s dosing. Credit Suisse is assuming a 2017 launch for ADS-5102 and peak sales of $200 million nine years later. However, the market seems to be placing almost no value on the potential of this drug.
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Pharma pick 5: MyoKardia
The last pharma pick for 2016 is MyoKardia (MYOK), a leader in developing treatments based on precision medicine for rare cardiovascular conditions, with initial focus on the large unmet need within hypertrophic cardiomyopathy and dilated cardiomyopathy. Like Adamas, MyoKardia is a clinical-stage company that is not expected to be profitable until 2021, however, the company is expecting a deluge of data from Phase 1 clinical studies during 2016. A collaboration with Sanofi provides critical validation and support for investors.
Disclosure: Rupert may hold positions in one or more of the companies mentioned in this article. more