First Apple, Now The Pentagon… What’s Really Going On With MP Materials Stock?
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MP Materials (MP) is one of the few companies mining rare earth elements in the United States. Their Mountain Pass site in California is home to the richest rare earth deposit in the Western Hemisphere. These minerals are essential for magnets used in electric vehicles, smartphones, wind turbines, and military tech.
Lately, MP has been making headlines. Apple committed $500 million to source recycled rare-earth magnets from them. And the Pentagon just invested $400 million to support a fully domestic supply chain. That’s not normal. Something big is happening—and investors are paying attention.
The IDDA Analysis framework is used to analyze companies and determine which are right for you. There are five steps to the process:
- Capital Analysis – Your personal risk tolerance.
- Intentional Analysis – Your unique financial goals and timelines based on your age, health, and lifestyle.
- Fundamental Analysis – The viability of the asset based on company performance, financial health, and market position.
- Sentimental Analysis – The current emotions of Wall Street and other market participants.
- Technical Analysis – Historical price action to identify key psychological levels and market patterns.
Let’s dive into the IDDA analysis to assess MP Materials’ fundamental, sentimental, and technical outlook.
IDDA Point 1&2: Capital & Intentional
The capital and intentional analysis need to be conducted by you.
Select your assets in alignment with your financial goals. Listen to your intuition about each asset, but remember to invest based on your own values, not just because of recommendations from others.
IDDA Point 3: Fundamental
Revenue is growing, but profits are still missing
MP brought in $60.8 million in revenue in Q1 2025, a 25% jump from the previous quarter. But they also reported a net loss of $22.6 million. This isn’t unusual for a company scaling fast, but it does show they’re still in build mode.
Big wins with the Pentagon and Apple
The U.S. government invested $400 million into MP and signed a 10-year deal to buy their magnets. Apple is also backing MP with a $500 million contract for recycled magnets starting 2027. These are long-term signals of trust from two of the most powerful institutions on the planet.
Heavy China exposure is gone, but so is the revenue
MP used to sell most of its rare-earth concentrate to China. But after tariffs hit, they had to stop exports. That forced them to speed up U.S. refining plans, which is great long term—but painful short term.
Vertical integration is happening now
MP is one of the only companies in the U.S. trying to build a full rare-earth supply chain, from mine to magnet. Their magnetics division just started shipping metal and pulled in $5.2 million in revenue. That’s a big step forward.
Industry tailwinds from clean tech and defense
Rare earths are in everything from EVs to fighter jets. Governments and big tech are under pressure to cut China out of the supply chain. That puts MP in a great spot if they can scale in time.
Still early on heavy rare earths
MP is strong in light rare earths like neodymium, but they still lag in heavy rare earths like dysprosium, which are crucial for high-heat applications. This could limit some of their market share in the short term.
Fundamental risk: Medium
MP is scaling fast with major backing, but the business is still finding its financial footing. The opportunity is big—but it comes with growing pains.
IDDA Point 4: Sentimental
Overall sentiment is bullish for MP Materials.
Strengths
Pentagon backing is a huge vote of confidence. It’s not just funding. It’s a 10-year contract and a stake in the company. Investors see this as long-term validation.
Apple’s $500 million partnership adds credibility and locks in future demand. This makes MP look less like a speculative miner and more like a legit supplier in global tech.
The push for U.S. rare-earth independence is real. Rising tariffs and geopolitical tensions are driving optimism around local supply chain players like MP.
Retail investors love the “Made in America” narrative. Add clean tech and national security to the mix and it feels like a patriot play with upside.
Morningstar’s bull thesis says MP’s early investment in vertical integration puts them years ahead of potential competitors.
Risks
The hype is high, but profits are still missing. Some investors fear the government backing is masking real financial strain.
Jefferies and a few others are cautious. They worry the stock is already pricing in future success that hasn’t materialized yet.
The Pentagon’s investment stirred backlash in the industry. Some say it creates unfair competition and could lead to regulatory drama.
China tariffs cut off a huge revenue stream. Even with domestic demand growing, it may take time to fully replace what they lost.
Market sentiment could flip fast if execution delays hit or if the magnet ramp underdelivers.
Sentimental risk: Medium
People are excited. Big names are involved. But the story still depends on smooth execution. If momentum slows or politics shift, sentiment could drop quickly.
IDDA POINT 5 – TECHNICAL
Monthly Chart
MP Materials went public in June 2020, so they’re still a newcomer.
Price just hit a new all-time high at $65.
Ichimoku Cloud has just started turning green, which shows early signs of long-term momentum.
RSI is at 85, which means the stock is overbought and could see a cool-off.
(Click on image to enlarge)
Weekly Chart
Price candles are sitting above the Ichimoku Cloud, which confirms a bullish trend.
The Tenkan line (conversion) just dropped to the Kijun (baseline), which signals a short-term pullback.
The cloud is still green but very thin, showing the trend isn’t super strong yet.
RSI is at 78, also in overbought territory, adding more weight to a possible short-term correction.
(Click on image to enlarge)
MP stock is trending up with strong momentum, but both RSI and Ichimoku suggest it may be due for a pullback before any next leg up. Long-term trend is still bullish, but this might not be the best time to jump in without a plan.
This stock is suitable for both long-term investors and swing traders.
Buy Limit (BL) levels:
$53.43 – High Risk
$46.83 – Moderate Risk
$41.62 – Low Risk
Profit Taking (PT) levels:
$90.85 – High Risk
$97.29 – Moderate Risk
$107.72 – Low Risk
Here are the Invest Diva ‘Confidence Compass’ questions to ask yourself before buying at each level:
- If I buy at this price and the price drops by another 50%, how would I feel? Would I panic, or would I buy more to dollar-cost average at lower prices? (hint: this question also reveals your CONFIDENCE in the asset you’re planning to invest in).
- If I don’t buy at this price and the stock suddenly turns around and starts going up again, will I beat myself up for not having bought at this level?
Remember: Investing is personal, and what is right for me might not be right for you. Always do your own due diligence. You should ONLY invest based on your own risk tolerance and your timeframe for reaching your portfolio goals
Technical risk: Medium
MP is in a strong uptrend with price above the cloud, but overbought RSI and early pullback signs suggest short-term volatility. Long-term setup looks solid, but near-term entries could be risky without confirmation.
Summary: Final Thoughts
MP Materials is in the spotlight for good reason. With backing from the Pentagon and Apple, they’re not just digging rocks—they’re building the future of rare-earth independence in the U.S. Their growth potential is huge. They’re moving fast to become a one-stop shop for rare-earth magnets, a key piece of everything from EVs to defense systems.
But they’re not there yet.
On the fundamental side, revenue is rising but profits are still missing. They’ve lost a major export market in China, and they’re racing to scale their refining and magnet production before competitors catch up. That adds execution risk.
Sentiment is mostly bullish. Wall Street loves the government deals, and retail investors are hyped on the clean energy plus national security combo. But the excitement could turn fast if magnet production stumbles or politics shift.
Technically, the chart looks strong long term. But RSI is overbought and some pullback signals are flashing. If you’re planning to enter, timing matters.
Overall risk: Medium
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