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This week, Chancellor Rachel Reeves will present her Spring Statement. She is expected to announce a downgrade to this year’s growth forecast, which will eat up the £9.9 billion of headroom.

While no tax changes are expected, Reeves is likely to announce 10,000 job cuts across the civil service in a bid to reduce running costs by 15%.

Domestic stocks such as banks, housebuilders, and retailers will be in focus and vulnerable to growing concerns over the economy's outlook.
 

Bellway H1 results preview

In addition to sentiment surrounding the Spring Statement, Bellway will release its first-half results for the period ending December 2024 on Tuesday, March 25.

Bellway's trading update in February already provided some details regarding these results, so the figures may not bring that many surprises. Instead, the focus will be on updated guidance for the full year to June 2025.

Expectations are for 8,500 home sales across the year at an average selling price of £310,000.

The housebuilder has targeted an underlying operating margin of 11% for the full year, and attention will be on input costs. As of the latest update, Bellway’s order book stood at £1.3 billion.

The homebuilders' strong next cash position could help support dividends. Last year, the interim dividend was 16p shares, totaling 54p across the year. The full-year dividend this year could reach 65p.

The results come after the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 4.5% last week, and the outlook for interest rate cuts becomes less clear. With inflation proving to be sticky and growth stalling, the BoE has adopted a more cautious approach to rate cuts. This could hurt the housing market bank this year.
 

How to trade Bellway results?

Bellway trades below its falling trendline dating back to October last year. Its recent bounce from 2182, the 2025 low, ran into resistance at the 200 SMA at 2700, rebounding lower to 2200. While the price has corrected off the low, its recovery has remained capped by the 50 SMA. The RSI is neutral.

Sellers will look to break below 22200 to extend losses to 2150 and onto 2100 round number.

Buyers will need to break out above the 50 SMA at 2400 to test the falling trendline at 2500. A rise above this exposes the 200 SMA at 2675, creating a higher high.

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Next full-year results

Next reports final results on Thursday, March 27, with the shares down 7% from September's all-time high.

In the last numbers from the retail bellwether in January, CEO Simon Wolfson expressed confidence that the retailer would exceed £1 billion in profits for the first time. He lifted the outlook to 10% growth in pretax profits from previous guidance of 9.5% growth due to strong online and overseas sales in the festive period.

However, the market could be more interested in what he says about the coming year, particularly as he's already warned about the impact of the government's minimum wage hike and increase in National Insurance changes from April. This could result in a £67 million hit which Next hopes to offset through price increases and cost efficiencies.

Overseas revenue growth in 2025 is expected to moderate from 24% so far this year to 14% in the year ahead. Meanwhile, Next’s wage bill is set to rise by £70 million.

Consumer sentiment is weakening and could deteriorate further across the quarter, particularly if the labour market shows signs of weakening.
 

How to trade NXT results?

After trading within an ascending channel since October 2022, the price reached a record high of 11025 in September before easing lo3wer and trading within a holding pattern, capped on the upside by 10245 and 9300 on the downside.

Momentum has slowed but the 50 SMA dynamic support holds for now. Buyers will look to break out to the upside above 10245 to look up to 11025 and fresh record highs.

Sellers would first need to take out the 50 SMA and break below 9300 to break down the range. Below here, 8650 comes into focus.

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GameStop Q4 earnings preview

In the US, GameStop is due to release its quarterly earnings ahead of the market open on Tuesday, March 25th. Expectations are for the meme stock to post EPS of $0.09 on revenue of $1.4 billion for the Q4. This could mark the third straight profitable quarter, in line with the company's goal of reaching break even. However, it would also mark the sixth straight quarter of sales losses and double-digit declines.

Earnings come after the GameStop share price saw a significant jump on February 10 after CEO Ryan Cohen posted a photo with Strategy CEO Michael Saylor. The image sparked speculation that GameStop could be considering a move into cryptocurrency.

GameStop continues to see large swings in the share price in both directions; however, the share price has been under pressure in recent weeks, falling 70% from its record high of over 120.75 in January 2021.

What's clear is that GameStop remains a difficult stock to understand. On the one hand, valuations are irrational given the company's break-even margins and declining revenues. On the other hand, the company has substantial cash on the balance sheet, but management offers little clarity on what it plans to do with the money.
 

How to trade GME results?

After facing rejection at 34.40, the price rebounded lower, breaking below its multi-year rising trendline and the 200 SMA before finding support at 21.50. The price has lifted from this low and is looking to break out of the downtrend.

Buyers would need to recover above the 200 SMA at 25.00 and the March high to negate the selloff. A rise above 28.80 creates a higher high.

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