US stock markets gained with the E-mini S&P 500, which rose by about 0.7% in the New York trading session, by negative economic data which might affect the monetary policy in a dovish way.

Durable goods fell by about 4.5% in the month-on-month data in January, pointing to lower spending and demand by the interest rate hikes which seemingly kick in and may be able to reconsider the interest rate hike projections towards a 25bps slowdown which supports the stock markets.

Positive data in the prior week and hawkish statements about a possible 50 bps hike pressured the US equities and commodities, hence negative signs such as lower durable good orders leading to bullish behavior from investors as interest rates might peak around 5.5%, according to recent probabilities.

The daily interval may find in a technical sense, with the confluent fundamental aspect of a potential dovish tone, core buyers around the lower value extreme of the Quarterly VWAP perspective, pointing to possible rotations back to the upper value extreme or developing VWAP.

The intraday perspective, which is imbalanced with an upside slope of the VWAP value, may find core buyers to add long positions around the developing VWAP or DVAL in the New York trading session.

The institutional viewpoints were mixed in the COT report as of the data from the 31st January. Asset managers were closing long and short positions while funds were opening new short positions and liquidated long positions in the prior week – due to the mentioned positive jobs data and rising inflation. Further negative economic data might benefit to lead investors to prospect a dovish tone in the monetary policy. 

Lower-than-expected economic data might lead to a dovish tone in the monetary viewpoints which eventually weakens the dollar to support commodities and equities to bring core buyers back into the market, caution beware of hawkish comments from central banks.

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