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Novartis AG, known by the ticker symbol NVS is a large-cap general drug manufacturer, operating in the healthcare business sector. This is my first report on NVS for this Viital portfolio, However I did report on NVS for a couple of past portfolios.

Novartis AG develops and manufactures healthcare products through two segments: Innovative Medicines and Sandoz.

It generates the vast majority of its revenue from Innovative Medicines segment consisting global business franchises in oncology, ophthalmology, neuroscience, immunology, respiratory, cardio-metabolic, and established medicines.

The firm sells its products globally, with the United States representing close to one third of total revenue.

It also provides active pharmaceutical ingredients and intermediates primarily antibiotics; protein- or other biotechnology-based products, including biosimilars; and biotechnology manufacturing services.

Novartis AG has a license and collaboration agreement with Alnylam Pharmaceuticals to develop, manufacture, and commercialize inclisiran; and a clinical collaboration with Kura Oncology, Inc. to evaluate the combination of Tipifarnib and Alpelisib in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.

The company was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland

Three key data points gauge any dividend equity or fund such as Novartis AG (NVS)

(1) Price

(2) Dividends

(3) Returns

Those three basic keys best tell whether any company has made, is making, and will make money.

NVS Price

Novartis’s price per share was $87.81 as of yesterday's market close. One year ago its price was $88.85. Therefore, Novartis’s share price fell $1.04 or about 1.1% in the past year.

If Novartis’s  stock trades in the range of $75.00 to $100.00 this next year, its recent $87.81 share price might rise by $7.19 to reach $95.00 by May 17, 2023. My $7.19 upside estimate is $3.17 LESS than the median of price upsides gauged by six analysts tracking NVS for brokerages.

NVS Dividends

Novartis’s most recently declared annual dividend of $3.325 was paid March 17th to shareholders on record as of March 8th.

NVS initiated a  $0.23 annual dividend May 26, 1992 The dividend has been variably increased  over the past 30 years. At its current $3.325 Annual rate, Roche’s annual payout is calculated to deliver a 3.79% annual yield per yesterday’s $87.81 share price.

NVS Returns

Adding the $3.325 NVS annual dividend to the estimated one-year price upside of $7.19 shows an $10.515 potential gross gain, per share, to be reduced by any costs to trade Novartis shares.

At yesterday's $87.81 closing price per share, a little under $1000 would buy 11 shares.

A $10 broker fee (if charged) would be paid half at purchase and half at sale and might cost us about $0.91 per share.

Subtract that maybe $0.91 brokerage cost from my estimated $10.52 gross gain estimate per share results in a net gain of $9.61 X 11 shares = $105.71 for a 10.57% net gain on a $965.91 investment.

So it is that Novartis AG shows a possible 10.57% net gain including a 3.79% forward looking dividend yield.

Over the next year at this time our $1000 investment in Novartis shares could generate $37.90 in cash dividends. Of course a single share of NVS  stock bought at yesterday's $87.81 price is over 2.3 times higher than the anticipated dividend income from our $1000.00 invested.

So, by my dogcatcher ideal, this is no time to pick up Novartis’s shares based on their forward looking dividends for the year 2022. The forthcoming annual dividend from $1K invested is currently 3.32 times less than yesterday's single share price. Consider yourself alerted. It's a sign. Do not touch NVS stock for dividends until the share price drops to $57.65 or the NVS dividend grows to $7.71 per year.

All of the estimates above are speculation based on the past history of Novartis AG (NVS). Only time and money invested in this stock will determine its market value.