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Takeda Pharmaceutical (TKPHF) is Japan’s largest pharmaceutical company, with revenue of JPY 3.6 trillion in fiscal 2021.

The company’s five core therapeutic areas are oncology, gastroenterology, neuroscience, rare diseases, and plasma-derived therapies, which account for more than 80% of revenue.

Its geographic footprint is well diversified, with 50% derived from the U.S., 20% from Japan, 20% from Europe and Canada.

The company was founded in 1781 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

Three key data points gauge Takeda or any dividend-paying firm.

The key three are:

(1) Price

(2) Dividends

(3) Returns

Those three basic keys best tell whether any company has made, is making, and will make money.

TKPHF Price

Over the past year, Takeda’s share price fell 20.5% from $34.04 to $27.05 as of Tuesday’s market close.

If Takeda shares trade in the range of $25.00 to $35.00 this next year, its recent $27.05 share price might rise to $27.50 by next year. Of course, TKPHF’s price could drop about the same $0.45 estimated amount, or more.

My annual upside estimate of $0.45 however, is within the range of the company’s average annual price gains over the past year and one-half.

TKPHF Dividend

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd has paid variable semi-annual dividends since September 2009. Takeda’s most recent SA dividend of $0.62 was declared May 11, 2023 for shareholders of record March 28th and a June date for payout has not been declared.

The forward looking $1.24 annual dividend yields 4.58% at Monday’s $27.05 share price.

TKPHF Returns

To put it all together, add the Takeda estimated annual dividend of $1.24 to the estimated price upside of $0.45 to find a $1.69 estimated gross gain for the coming year.

At Monday’s $27.05 share price, a little over $1000 would buy 37 shares.

A $10 broker fee (if charged), paid half at purchase and half at sale, would cost us about $0.27 per share.

Subtracting that likely $0.27 brokerage cost from the $1.69 gross gain reveals a net gain of $1.42 X 37 shares = $52.54 for a 5.25% estimated net gain on the year.

You might choose to pounce on Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd. It is a 243 year-old dividend paying Tokyo-based specialty and generic pharmaceutical company.  Furthermore, the estimated $45.80 annual dividend income from $1k invested is 1.69 times greater than Takeda’s recent $27.05 single share price.

The exact track of Takeda Pharma’s ongoing future price and dividend will be determined by market action.

Remember the true value of any stock is best realized through personal ownership of shares.

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