Based in Bonn, Germany, Deutsche Post AG dba DHL Group (DPSGY) ranks among the largest parcel-shipping and third-party logistics providers globally.

Its DHL divisions (international express shipping, air and ocean freight forwarding, contract logistics, and e-commerce solutions) generate roughly 80% of revenue.

Roughly 20% of revenue comes from the Post and Parcel Germany division, which includes the legacy postal business and the German small-package delivery business.

Three key data points gauge DHL Group or any dividend-paying firm. The key three are:

(1) Price

(2) Dividends

(3) Returns

Those three basic keys best tell whether any company has made, is making, and will make money.

DHL Price

Over the past year, DHL share price fell about 4.8% from $45.78 to $43.59 as of Friday’s market close.

If DHL shares trade in the range of $35 to $50.00 this next year, its recent $45.78 share price might rise to $49.00 by next year. Of course, DHL’s price could drop about the same $3.22 estimated amount, or more.

My annual upside estimate of $3.22 however, is $1.00 over the average of annual price gains logged by DHL over the past 12 years.

DHL Dividend

DHL Group  has paid variable annual dividends since May 13th 2009,  DHL’s most recent A dividend of $1.99 was declared March 21st for shareholders of record May 6th with payout made May 14.

A forward looking $1.99 annual dividend yields 4.57% at Friday’s $43.59 share price.

DHL Returns

To put it all together, add the DHL estimated annual dividend of $1.99 to the estimated price upside of $3.22 to get a $5.21 estimated gross gain for the coming year.

At Friday’s $43.59 share price, a little over $1000 would buy 23 shares.

A $10 broker fee (if charged), paid half at purchase and half at sale, would cost us about $0.43 per share.

Subtracting that likely $0.43 brokerage cost from the $5.21 gross gain reveals a net gain of $4.78 X 23 shares = $109.93 for about  a 10% estimated net gain on the year.

The $45.70 estimated dividend income from $1k invested is $2.11 greater than DHL’s recent $43.59 share price.

The exact track of DHL’s upcoming future price and dividend will entirely be determined by market action.

Remember, the true value of any stock is best realized through personal ownership of shares.

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