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Community Trust Bancorp Inc (CTBI) is a bank holding company. The Bank owns all the capital stock of one commercial bank and one trust company, serving small and mid-sized communities in eastern, north-eastern, central, and southcentral Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and north-eastern Tennessee.

Through its subsidiaries, the Bank is engaged in commercial and personal banking and trust and wealth management activities, which include accepting time and demand deposits; making secured and unsecured loans to corporations, individuals, and others; providing cash management services to corporate and individual customers; issuing letters of credit; renting safe deposit boxes; and providing funds transfer services.

Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. was founded in 1903 and is headquartered in Pikeville, Kentucky.

Three key data points gauge Community Trust Bancorp Inc or any dividend-paying firm.

The key three are:

(1) Price

(2) Dividends

(3) Returns

Those three basic keys best tell whether any company has made, is making, and will make money.

CTBI Price

Over the past year, Community’s share price fell about 10.6% from $42.78 to $35.06 as of Monday’s market close.

If CTBI stock trades in the range of $30.00 to $40.00 this next year, its recent $35.06 share price might rise to $39.00 by next year. Of course, CTBI’s price could drop about the same $3.94 estimated amount, or more.

My upside estimate of $3.94, however, is about $1.00 below the median of ten annual target price estimates from analysts tracking CTBI for brokers.

CTBI Dividend

Community Trust Bancorp Inc has paid regular Quarterly dividends since January 1, 1999.  Community’s most recent Q dividend, paid October 1st to shareholders of record September 14th, was $0.46.

That measures up to an annual forward looking yield of 5.25%.

CTBI Returns

Add the $1.84 anticipated annual dividend to CTBI’s estimated $3.94 possible price upside, reveals a $5.78 estimated gross gain per share for the coming year.

At Monday’s $35.06 closing price, a little over $1000 would buy 29 shares.

A $10 broker fee (if charged), paid half at purchase and half at sale, might cost us about $0.34 per share.

Subtracting that likely $0.34 brokerage cost from my estimated $5.78 estimated gross gain per share makes a net gain of $5.44 X 29 shares = $157.76 or about a 15.5% net gain.

This might be about time to pounce on CTBI shares. But beware, Community is a Kentucky based regional bank paying regular quarterly dividends for twenty-four years. Furthermore, the estimated $52.50 annual dividend from $1000 invested comes in about 1.5 times greater than the recent $35.06 single share price. The question is, what future dividend payments and price changes lie ahead?

Remember the true value of any stock is best realized through personal ownership of shares.

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