Current Analysis: British American Tobacco (BTI)

Photo by Mathew MacQuarrie on Unsplash

Following the acquisition of Reynolds American, British American Tobacco (BTI) is neck-and-neck with Philip Morris International to be the largest listed Global tobacco company--slightly larger than PMI on net revenue, but slightly smaller on total tobacco volume.

British American's Global Drive Brands are Dunhill, Kent, Pall Mall, Lucky Strike, and Rothmans, and it also owns Newport and Camel in the U.S. The firm also sells vapor e-cigarettes, primarily its Vuse brand, heated tobacco, with Glo, as well Velo modern oral tobacco products.

The company holds 29% of ITC Limited, the leading Indian cigarette-maker.

It distributes its products to retail outlets.

The company was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

 

Three key data points gauge British American Tobacco PLC or any dividend-paying firm.The key three are:

(1) Price

(2) Dividends

(3) Returns

Those three basic keys best tell whether any company has made, is making, and will make money.

 

BTI Price

Over the past year, British American share price dropped near 20% from $40.67 to $32.55 as of Friday’s market close.

If British American’s stock trades in the range of $30.00 to $45.00 this next year, its recent $32.55 share price might rise to $40.00 by next year. Of course, BTI’s price could drop about the same $7.45 amount, or more.

My upside estimate of $7.45, however, is $4.70 under the median one year target price conjured up by two analysts tracking BTI for brokers.

 

BTI Dividend

British American Tobacco PLC paid regular semi-annual dividends from April 19, 1984 to February 13, 2018 at which time BTI initiated variable Quarterly dividend payments. BTI’s most recent Q dividend, payable February 6th 2024 to shareholders of record December 31st, is $0.70. Its annual dividend payout of $2.80 is projected to yield 8.61% per Friday’s closing price.

 

BTI Returns

Adding the $2.80 anticipated annual dividend to British American Tobacco PLC’s estimated $7.45 possible price upside, reveals a $10.25 potential gross gain per share for the coming year.

At Friday’s $32.55 closing price, a little over $1000 would buy 31 shares.

A $10 broker fee (if charged), paid half at purchase and half at sale, might cost us about $0.32 per share.

Subtracting that maybe $0.32 brokerage cost from my estimated $10.25 gross gain per share makes a net gain of $9.93 X 31 shares = $307.83 or about a 30.8% net gain.

This may be the time to pounce on British American Tobacco PLC shares. But beware,British American is an International Tobacco provider doing business in a highly-transitive environment. However, the estimated $86.10 dividend from $1000 invested comes in at just over 2.5 times the recent $32.55 single share price. The choice is yours.

Remember the true value of any stock is best realized by your personal ownership of shares.


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Disclaimer:  This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a ...

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