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Chipotle (CMG) reported another disappointing quarter after the close Tuesday with -2.5% comps. For the first time ever, full year comps were negative at -1.7%. Further, they guided 2026 comps to flat. This suggests to me that with more than 4,000 stores, CMG has now saturated the market. There are no incremental customers to add to grow its comps.

However, the stock is still priced like a growth stock. CMG earned $1.17 EPS in 2025 and its stock is currently trading -7% in the premarket at $36.44. In other words, the stock is still trading at 30x EPS despite having lost its mojo.

I eat CMG ~2x/month and am a fan but without growth, the stock is only worth a 20x multiple at best or ~$24. Unless they can turn their comps around, I see the stock drifting down to that level over the next year or two.

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