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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2021 results on Feb 8, after the closing bell.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings and revenues beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 12.7% and 0.6%, respectively. On a year-over-year basis, earnings and revenues of this restaurant chain operator were up 86.7% and 21.9%, respectively.

Chipotle’s earnings topped the consensus mark in three of the last four quarters and missed on another occasion, with the average being 7.8%.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Quote

Trend in Estimate Revision

For the quarter to be reported, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share has decreased to $5.20 from $5.22 over the past 30 days. Nonetheless, the estimated figure indicates a 49.4% increase from $3.48 per share reported in the year-ago quarter. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $1.95 billion, suggesting 21.5% growth from the year-ago reported figure of $1.61 billion.

Factors to Note

The multi-pronged growth strategy, robust digitization, comps growth, the opening of Chipotlane and other sales-building efforts are likely to have benefited Chipotle's fourth-quarter performance.

Digital sales — accounting for 42.8% of total sales — have been aiding the company buoyed by its simplified online ordering site, the “Smarter Pickup Times” technology rollout, the rewards program, advertising and collaboration with all the major third-party delivery aggregators.

In order to boost convenience in the digital ordering platform, the company has been initiating features such as unlimited customization, contactless delivery and group ordering. Also, the idea of using robotics-based autonomous vehicles for delivery purposes is likely to reflect on the quarterly results.

Overall, Chipotle's top line for the fourth quarter is likely to reflect an improvement in comps backed by consistent strength in digital sales, solid recovery of in-restaurant sales and positive customer reception to new menu items. For fourth-quarter 2021, the company anticipates comps growth in the low- to mid-double-digit range.

Meanwhile, wage inflation and costs associated with beef and freight will likely weigh on the company’s restaurant-level operating margin. Also, OMICRON-related weakness in the last two weeks of the quarter may have been a concern.

Nonetheless, these headwinds are likely to have been offset by leverage from comparable restaurant sales growth and incremental pricing actions.

What Our Model Says

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Chipotle this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.

Earnings ESP: Chipotle has an Earnings ESP of +0.82%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #3.