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Powerhouse semiconductor giant Nvidia (NVDA) has been struggling over the past several sessions, though it might not look like it at first blush. For example, in the trailing half-year period, NVDA stock has gained 74%, well above the Nasdaq Composite’s return of 35% during the same frame. However, the needle hasn’t moved much since approximately mid-August, raising concerns about forward viability.

Plenty of market jitters impacted the chipmaker, which has previously witnessed a dramatic surge in value thanks to its graphics processing units and their implications for artificial intelligence. Primarily, broader economic weakness — along with escalating U.S.-China tensions — have impeded forward momentum for NVDA stock. Further, uncertainties about inflation kept the lid on the security.

However, with the latest data from the Consumer Price Index, some of the anxieties have been smoothed over. Per a CNBC report, the CPI showed a 0.3% increase in September, putting the annual inflation rate at 3%. In contrast, economists had anticipated readings of 0.4% and 3.1%, respectively.

Politically, the news represented critical breathing space for the Trump administration, which has been under fire due to economic pressures, particularly headwinds stemming from inflation. NVDA stock also benefited from the positive shift in tone, rising almost 2% in the late-morning hours. Still, with the inflation data now baked in, what can investors expect next?

Quantitatively, NVDA stock is structured in a 4-6-U sequence: four up weeks, six down weeks, with an overall upward trajectory. Leveraging the principles of GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity), it’s possible to isolate this specific population group and measure its projected near-term forward response relative to homeostatic conditions.

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Over the next 10 weeks, we can expect median price clustering around $189, assuming an anchor price of $185.18. That’s noticeably lower than the price clustering that would be expected under homeostatic conditions, which would land at around $200.

However, on a terminal basis, it’s possible that around the eighth week forward (which would coincide with the business week ending Dec. 12), NVDA stock may breach the $200 level before correcting.

Still, circumstances could get really shaky. At this moment, NVDA stock would appear to be a speculative trading opportunity. As a long-term investment prospect, the narrative is less clear.

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