Charged: Apple, Hyundai-Kia Said To Be Close To 'Apple Car' Deal
In this latest edition of "Charged," we look at some analysts' notes, news and activity in the electric vehicle and clean energy space.
APPLE CAR
Apple (AAPL) is near finalizing an agreement with Hyundai-Kia (HYMTF) to make an Apple-branded autonomous electric car at the Kia assembly factory in West Point, Georgia, CNBC's Phil LeBeau and Meghan Reeder reported, citing multiple sources. The so-called "Apple Car," which is being developed by a team at the U.S. tech giant, is tentatively set to enter production in 2024, though the eventual launch could be further delayed, the authors say, citing people familiar with the talks. No deal has officially been reached between the two companies, the authors noted.
PIPER MORE THAN DOUBLES TESLA TARGET
On Monday, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter raised the firm's price target on Tesla (TSLA) to $1,200 from $515, while keeping an Overweight rating on the shares. 2020 was a breakout year for Tesla, but the "fireworks aren't over," Potter told investors in a research note. The analyst believes that even after a 10-times return over the past 12 months, investors should not be selling this stock. Potter's forecast for Tesla now implies 894,000 vehicle deliveries in 2021, eventually ramping to 9M-plus units in 2030. This level of production would rank Tesla among the top-three auto makers globally, he added. More important, the analyst argued that the company will see a steady ramp in full self-driving software adoption starting in 2030, with 50%-plus of all Tesla owners using the full self-driving package by the end of the 20-year forecast period. Potter believes this should have a big impact on margins, with Tesla's EBIT margin eventually exceeding 40%. Further, by the 2030s, he expects Tesla Energy to represent 20%-30% of revenue versus 6% today. Tesla is targeting "multi-trillion-dollar markets" so there "will always be new levers for growth," the analyst pointed out.
TESLA RECALL
Tesla is recalling 134,951 2012-2018 Tesla Model S and 2016-2018 Model X vehicles with a center display equipped with an Nvidia (NVDA) Tegra 3 processor, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration reported on its website earlier this week. "When the 8GB eMMC NAND flash memory device for the center display reaches lifetime wear, the eMMC controller will no longer be able to maintain the integrity of the filesystem, causing a failure in some of the center display functions," the agency said. Tesla will notify owners, and will replace the VCM daughterboard with one containing an enhanced eMMC controller, free of charge, it added. The recall is expected to begin March 30, 2021.
NIKOLA NEGATIVE CATALYSTS MOSTLY PLAYED OUT
Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives upgraded Nikola (NKLA) to Neutral from Underperform with a price target of $25, up from $15. While some clear hurdles remain for Nikola to achieve its hydrogen and semi-truck vision over the next year, most of the negative catalysts have now played out, Ives told investors in a research note. The analyst's main concerns on Nikola were centered on the shifting General Motors (GM) partnership, Badger "hype" and execution risks. Ives sees a more balanced risk/reward looking forward, and believes Nikola's electric vehicle and hydrogen fuel cell ambitions are attainable in the semi-truck market. Further, the Biden administration and Democratic Senate's green initiatives "will be massive" around electric vehicle and hydrogen over the coming years and could significantly accelerate Nikola's build out ambitions, the analyst said.
ON THE SIDELINES ON LI
Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu initiated coverage of Li Auto (LI) with a Hold rating and $35 price target. Li has proven itself to be a "focused and efficient operator" as demonstrated by its margin and cash flow performance and "strong" sales, Yu tol investors in a research note. The analyst, however, started coverage on the sidelines to await more clarity on its battery electric vehicle and autonomous driving roadmap. Li Auto currently only sells a hybrid SUV and is an "early laggard" in advanced drive-assist display capabilities, Yu added. He believes management understands this and is likely accelerating internal developmental efforts on these fronts. Yu also thinks Li can get to 250,000 unit sales by 2025, including two battery electric vehicle models, with gross margin fluctuating in the low-mid 20% range through 2025.
DELIVERIES
Li Auto announced that the company delivered 5,379 Li ONEs in January, representing a 355.8% year-over-year increase and resulting in cumulative deliveries of 38,976 vehicles. The company also announced the establishment of a new research and development, or R&D, center in Shanghai, China dedicated to the development of electric vehicle technologies. These technologies include platforms, charging technologies, autonomous driving technologies, intelligent cockpits, operating systems and computing platforms. This R&D center will have end-to-end development capabilities for new models. The R&D center has already started recruiting, and expects to ultimately house over 2,000 staff in the future.
NIO Inc. (NIO) also provided its January delivery results. The company said it delivered 7,225 vehicles in January, a new monthly record representing a 352.1% year-over-year growth. The deliveries consisted of 1,660 ES8s, the company's six-seater and seven-seater smart electric SUV, 2,720 ES6s, its five-seater smart electric SUV, and 2,845 EC6s, the company's five-seater electric coupe SUV. As of January 31, cumulative deliveries of the ES8, ES6 and EC6 reached 82,866 vehicles.
Meanwhile, XPeng (XPEV) also announced its vehicle delivery results for January, saying it achieved a record monthly delivery of 6,015 Smart EVs in January, representing a 470% increase from January 2020, and marking the third consecutive month of record-breaking delivery numbers. Both the P7 smart sports sedan and the G3 smart compact SUV deliveries maintained momentum. Total January deliveries consisted of a record high 3,710 P7s and 2,305 G3s. Cumulative P7 deliveries reached 18,772 as of January 31. G3 deliveries exhibited a 118% increase year-over-year. The new version of P7's operating system, Xmart OS 2.5.0 was released to customers on January 26 this year, optimizing 200+ features and adding 40+ new functions including the navigation assisted highway autonomous driving solution NGP.
BUY PLUG POWER
Bernstein analyst Neil Beveridge initiated coverage of Plug Power (PLUG) with an Outperform rating and $75 price target as the firm expanded coverage of the global fuel cell sector. For fuel cell makers, heavy duty transport is the most attractive end market, with demand for fuel cells in trucks offering "the single most important growth market for fuel cells with high barriers to entry," Beveridge contended.
'UNWARRANTED' OUTPERFORMANCE
Morgan Stanley analyst Stephen Byrd downgraded SunPower (SPWR) to Underweight from Equal Weight with an unchanged price target of $27. The analyst noted that the stock, after having outperformed solar installer and equipment stocks by 120%-200% over the last 3 months, trades at a significant premium to peers despite a lower revenue growth and EBITDA margin outlook. This outperformance versus solar peers Enphase (ENPH), SolarEdge (SEDG), Sunrun (RUN), Sunnova (NOVA) and Array Technologies (ARRY) "has been unwarranted" and has led to an unfavorable risk-reward compared with similarly exposed peers, Byrd argued.
LUCID CEO
On Friday, Lucid Motors CEO Peter Rawlinson spoke on CNBC, stating that demand has been "overwhelming" as consumers become aware of the brand. Rawlinson, who said his company's cars are at the high-end and not in direct competition to Tesla, said he "can't comment" on reports of talks with Churchill Capital and did not confirm nor deny such talks. Earlier in the week, Eliot Brown of The Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter, that talks between blank-check company Churchill Capital Corp IV (CCIV) and electric-vehicle startup Lucid Motors are continuing, but that a deal isn't imminent.
EV CHARGER INITIATIONS
On Friday, Roth Capital analyst Craig Irwin initiated coverage of Beam Global (BEEM) with a Buy rating and $85 price target. Beam offers hardware-agnostic and deployable EV charging infrastructure solutions with units that are installed in minutes, "allowing customers to forego costs and delays for permitting, construction, and electrical connections," said Irwin. The company's new sponsored deployment model, with the first project starting in San Diego, could accelerate revenue growth, added the analyst.
Irwin also initiated coverage of Blink Charging (BLNK) with a Buy rating and $67 price target. Blink has deployed over 23,000 electric vehicle charging units through both consolidation and the pursuit of long-term strategic commercial partnerships with real estate owners, Irwin told investors in a research note. The analyst would be a buyer of the stock for leverage to accelerating electric vehicle adoption and continued growth of the company's charging network.
In addition, Roth's Irwin initiated coverage of Switchback Energy Acquisition Corp. (SBE), the acquirer of ChargePoint (CHPT), at Buy with a $46 target. ChargePoint has a 73% share in networked Level 2 EV charging stations, which Irwin calls "a good indictor" that the company should remain a long-term leader in the rapidly expanding EV charging infrastructure market. EV market expansion consistent with consensus forecasts could support "material long-term upside" for ChargePoint, the analyst added.
Disclaimer: TheFly's news is intended for informational purposes only and does not claim to be actionable for investment decisions. Read more at more
Thanks for the detailed reporting. But to throw some water on the fire, the computer driven cars will be a non-starter for two reasons: First, the improvement in safety is non-existent for most people, since most people never are involved in an accident, and if they don't hate to drive there is no other reason to pay so much extra for a very expensive add-on. And the bigger reason is that computer driven cars will never have adequately good software, because the cost of a proper evaluation is far to great.
And the really big challenge for electric vehicles will happen as the number grows and it becomes clear that there is not enough power to charge them all. THAT is the fatal flaw in the concept that is very seldom mentioned, since it is a serious show-stopper.