Image Source: Pixabay

Key Takeaways

• Cameco (CCJ) stock has surged 14.9% in the past month and 59% year-to-date, driven by growing global uranium demand
• Bernstein analyst Bob Brackett maintained a Buy rating with a $74 price target on Sept. 18
• DCF analysis shows that the stock has been trading at a fair value of CAD117.43, which is roughly 1.5% above its intrinsic value
• The PE ratio of 97.3x far exceeds the industry average of 12.6x and peer average of 15.5x, suggesting overvaluation
• Q2 2025 results showed strong performance, with adjusted net earnings of $308 million and EBITDA of $673 million

Cameco Corporation delivered another month of strong gains, climbing 14.9% as uranium markets have continued their upward trajectory. The Canadian mining company’s stock has posted impressive returns of 59% year-to-date and over 84% in the past twelve months.
 

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Image Source: Yahoo! Finance

The recent rally extended Cameco’s remarkable five-year performance. Total returns over that period have reached more than 835%. Nuclear power’s renewed momentum has placed uranium producers in the spotlight as governments worldwide seek secure, lower-emission energy sources.

Geopolitical tensions have further amplified price action in uranium markets. Supply expectations have continued to shift as energy-constrained markets have globally shown growing interest in nuclear power solutions.

Financial Performance Drives Analyst Confidence

Cameco reported strong consolidated results for Q2 2025 and the first six months of the year. The company posted adjusted net earnings of $308 million and net earnings of $321 million. Adjusted EBITDA reached $673 million, all substantially higher than Q2 2024 figures.

Management credited the performance to increased equity earnings from its Westinghouse investment. The uranium and fuel services segments both delivered strong results during the quarter.

Bernstein analyst Bob Brackett maintained his Buy rating. He set a price target of $74.00 for the NYSE-listed shares. The analyst's stance comes as institutional investors have continued to show interest in uranium exposure.

Valuation Metrics Paint Mixed Picture

Valuation analysis reveals a complex picture for potential investors. Cameco scores 0 out of 6 on traditional valuation checks, which is typically a red flag for value-seeking investors.

The discounted cash flow model estimates fair value at CAD117.43 per share. This analysis uses Cameco’s latest free cash flow of CAD910.6 million as a starting point. Analysts have projected that this figure will grow to CAD1.60 billion by 2029.

The DCF model suggests shares have been trading roughly 1.5% above the estimated intrinsic value. This represents a relatively close alignment between the stock's recent price and long-term cash flow potential.

Price-to-earnings analysis tells a different story, however. Cameco has been trading at a PE ratio of 97.3x, well above the peer average of 15.5x. The broader oil and gas industry averages just 12.6x earnings.

Simply Wall St calculates a “Fair Ratio” of 16.6x for Cameco. This proprietary measure adjusts for growth forecasts, profit margins, company size, and unique risks. Against this benchmark, shares appear richly valued with considerable optimism already priced in.

Alternative valuation narratives on the platform range widely. Bullish scenarios value the stock at CAD131.0, assuming accelerating nuclear demand and margin expansion. Conservative estimates place fair value at CAD100.0, factoring in potential project delays and margin risks.

The company operates through two main segments. The Uranium segment explores, mines, purchases, and sells uranium concentrate. The Fuel Services segment handles refining, conversion, and manufacturing of uranium concentrate, plus conversion service sales and purchases.

Recent market dynamics have supported uranium prices across the sector. Nuclear power’s role in energy transition strategies has continued to gain recognition among policymakers. This has created tailwinds for producers like Cameco with established mining operations and long-term contracts.

The company’s Westinghouse investment has provided additional earnings stability. Equity earnings from this holding contributed meaningfully to Q2 results, demonstrating the value of Cameco’s diversified nuclear fuel cycle exposure.

Cameco’s Q2 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $673 million represents the most recent quarterly performance data available from the company’s financial reports.

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