Buy These Four Undervalued, Crash-Proof Stocks
Pick up shares of these four safe blue chip stocks that have been indiscriminately sold-off with the rest of the market. Trading at fire sale prices, with strong balance sheets, little exposure to the current market malaise, and substantial dividends, these are four smart buys to add to your portfolio.
Investors can be forgiven for dipping into their antacid supplies this year as the market has had the worst start to a year in the exchange’s long history. Some $1.7 trillion of market value was wiped out through Wednesday in the domestic stock markets. Globally, equity values have dropped by some $3.2 trillion. The main triggers for the decline continue to be slowing growth in China as well as the continuing collapse in energy and commodity prices. This is impacting companies’ earnings significantly as the market is currently going through a “profit recession” with Q4 earnings expected to show the third quarterly year-over-year decline in earnings within the S&P 500 in a row.
However, on the bright side, the economy looks like it will continue to muddle through the year with the same approximate two percent GDP growth that has been the hallmark of this long but weak post-war recovery. The high yield debt markets have also come under pressure due to about $270 billion in “junk” bonds outstanding to a crumbling E&P sector.
At a time like now, it is important to remember that although $270 billion sounds like a large number, it is only 15% to 20% of the overall high yield domestic credit market. Most of that paper is held by private equity, hedge funds, and smaller banks. Major banks have little exposure to this sector compared to their overall loan portfolio. More importantly, it pales in size compared to the mortgage market which triggered the financial crisis in 2008/2009.
In addition, the collapse in oil is starting to get noticed over at the Federal Reserve. On Thursday morning, St. Louis Federal Reserve president Bullard stated the drop in oil has implications for inflation expectations. Bullard, who is a voting member of the Federal Reserve committee this year, seems to be signaling that a more dovish Federal Reserve policy is probably on the way. If the central bank backs off its previous view that they will have four quarter-point interest rate hikes in 2016, which no one believes anyway, it could be a big positive for market sentiment.
My regular followers know that I was pessimistic on the markets to begin 2016 and had accumulated a 30% allocation to cash prior to the New Year beginning. That allocation is now down below 20% as I have taken advantage of some the lower entry points in the market. I am primarily sticking with large cap positions with cheap valuations, good balance sheets, and substantial dividend yields. Dividends could make up a majority of the overall returns the market provides in 2016 given the way stocks have started the year. Here are a few of these positions I think are safe and prudent to add to at the moment.
JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) reported better than expected quarterly results on Thursday morning beating both top and bottom line expectations. The bank continues to be considered among the best run major financial institutions with top-flight risk management. It should also benefit if interest rates do rise later in the year; this will improve the bank’s net interest rate margins, a key driver of profit. The shares are cheap at under 10 times 2015’s earnings and the stock also provides a three percent dividend yield. Expect dividend payouts to increase significantly over the coming years as regulators loosen their reins now that capital ratios have been bolstered to meet new policies.
General Motors (NYSE: GM) is cheap by any measure if one believes the U.S. will avoid a recession. On Wednesday, the company boosted earnings guidance to $5.25 to $5.75 a share in 2016. The manufacturer also added $4 billion to its existing $5 billion stock buyback authorization. This would retire almost 20% of the outstanding float at current price levels which would boost earnings substantially if fully deployed. GM also bumped up its dividend payout and now yields five percent. Given that this automaker should see 10% to 15% profit growth in FY2016, it is much too cheap at under six times forward earnings.
The stocks of Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) and Macy’s (NYSE: M) look like they have bottomed recently and provide four percent dividend yields as well. Macy’s poor recent same store comp sales were impacted by the much warmer than normal winter weather which destroyed demand for winter apparel. Thanks to recent colder weather across much of the nation, sales should pick up in the current quarter. Thanks to activists, the company has signaled a new openness into monetizing some of the retailer’s major real estate holdings. The land under the company’s store portfolio might be worth at least as much as the current market value given to it by investors. The stock is cheap at nine times earnings.
Qualcomm is also being pushed by activists to become more efficient and announced a large restructuring that will significantly reduce annual operating costs. The tech giant is also starting to make progress signing licensees for its trove of 3G/4G patents in China which should improve future royalties. The shares are also cheap at under 10 time forward earnings, a big discount to its historical valuation and the overall market multiple.
I am not ready to go whole hog in buying the recent dip in the market but this is how I am incrementally adding to some core positions to take advantage of these lower entry points.
Position: None
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you like GM over F?