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Target (TGT) is a Dividend King with a solid yield, consistent dividend growth, and high expected returns in the coming years. The company is a discount retail giant, with a market capitalization of $70 billion.

Today, it operates approximately 1,950 stores in the US, as well as an e-commerce business. It has a diverse product lineup, with annual sales of more than $107 billion.

Recent Events

Target posted first-quarter earnings on May 22. Adjusted earnings per share came to $2.03 in Q1. Revenue declined 3.1% to $24.5 billion, which met estimates. Comparable sales fell 3.7%, which met expectations, and was the cause of the consolidated top-line decline. Inventory fell 7% year-over-year, which is a good development for margins and cash flow.

The company also noted that despite the fall in total inventory, in-stock levels were better than last year. Operating margin was 5.3% of revenue, up fractionally from 5.2% a year ago. Gross margins were 27.7% of revenue, up 140 basis points year-over-year. This was attributable to cost improvements and lower promotional markdown rates, combined with favorable mix of sales.

Growth Prospects

Target has grown its EPS by 8% per year on average over the last decade. We expect 10% annual EPS growth over the next five years for the company. Target has invested in growing sales in new categories.

First, Target has invested heavily in e-commerce. It has revamped its online offerings and has seen rapid growth of its digital sales channel. The company has also expanded its same-day fulfillment service.

Plus, Target continues redeveloping stores and building smaller stores with much less square footage in places that cannot provide the necessary space to build a large store. Small stores are located in areas that see high traffic, such as densely populated large cities and college campuses.

Valuation & Expected Returns

Future returns will consist of the stock’s EPS growth, changes in the valuation multiple, and dividends.

Based on expected EPS of $9.35 for 2024, TGT now trades for a P/E of 15.7. With the price-to-earnings ratio below our long-term, fair-value estimate at 17, the rising P/E multiple could add 1.6% to annual returns over the next five years.

Target has raised its dividend for 55 consecutive years and the stock recently yielded 3%. As a result, total returns could reach 12.9% per year over the next five years, making TGT a buy. Combined with 10% expected EPS growth, Target is expected to generate returns of approximately 14.6% annually, over the next five years.

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