Bull Market Delights Could Have Violent Bear Market Ends

On Dec. 21 the Dow again traded within a whisker of the mega stocks bull market milestone of 20,000 by hitting a high of 19,987 before retreating to close at 19,942, up 15% on the year and 9% since Trump's election win, and I just cannot wait any longer for those extra 13 points to materialize before publishing this analysis.

 

This stock bull market has now risen by some 13,500 points since the last bear market bottomed at Dow 6,470 in March 2009. At THAT time I concluded to expect a multi-year bull market, a stock stealth bull market.

At the time I imagined that it would be a stealth bull market for perhaps its first 18 months or so before the commentariat started to realize that stocks had entered into a new bull market. Instead the stealth bull market continued for 4 full years all the way to NEW ALL TIME HIGHS, all while the clueless consensus had been that it was a bear market rally that MUST resolve in a resumption of bear market given the dire economic consequences courtesy of an ongoing financial crisis, and the resulting economic depression that became a perpetual perma bear mantra that I have often ridiculed.

15 Mar 2009 - Stealth Bull Market Follows Stocks Bear Market Bottom at Dow 6,470 (169,913 Reads)

Wide spread consensus today exists for SHARPLY LOWER CORPORATE EARNINGS going into 2010 THAT MUST MEAN MUCH LOWER STOCK PRICES. However this earnings analysis that is so abundant today, should have been presented OVER A YEAR AGO  in October 2007 I.e. at or near the market peak so that ordinary investors could actually ACT on the information. NOT NOW AT THE MARKET BOTTOM ! We are again seeing REASONS as to WHY INVESTORS should avoid investing INTO the Stealth Bull market, precisely as we all witnessed what was effectively Bullish propaganda during the final stages of the Stocks Bull Market, so we are NOW witnessing what is effectively BEARISH propaganda in the final stages of the Bear Market. Now, don't get me wrong, I am not saying that the analysis is not genuine, what I am saying is that IT IS IRRELEVANT. As it is always much easier to build a scenario in favor of a trend that has been in force for sometime that has generated much data and analysis in support of why it exists and therefore it should continue for much longer, then to "Think Out side of the Box" to disregard bearish data that has been magnified by the growing consensus that really should have been known more than a year earlier in favor of the technical picture that as the analysis of October 2008 stated, that a. we are NOT heading for a Great Depression (as I will further elaborate upon in the Q&A below) and b. The stock bear market HAS fulfilled its bear market objectives in terms of price and time, more than anyone could have been imagined a year ago!

And so the bear market rally mantra continued by the mass of analysts (salesmen) and the pseudo-analysts (journalists) from 2009 into 2010 where at the start of 2010 I published my first ebook "The Inflation Mega-trend" (Free download) that warned to expect the stock stealth bull market to continue for the whole of 2010 and continue for far longer and higher than anyone could imagine at the time which since has remained my consistent message.

 

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis ...

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Bill Johnson 6 years ago Member's comment

Good stuff. Would like to see more by you.

Chee Hin Teh 7 years ago Member's comment

Thanks for sharing. Merry Christmas