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Anheuser-Busch InBev (NYSE: BUD) has been navigating dynamic shifts in the beverage market, leveraging its diverse portfolio to mitigate challenges and capitalize on emerging opportunities. At the recent Beer Marketers’ Insights conference, the company showcased a promising outlook, with its U.S. Chief Sales Officer expressing confidence in summer trends.

Notably, brands like Cutwater and Busch Light have been gaining traction, with the latter nearing parity with Bud Light in certain markets. Meanwhile, strategic partnerships, like the one with David Beckham for Stella Artois, have fueled market share growth. Despite facing consumer price sensitivity, BUD remains resilient, poised to leverage any shifts in consumer behavior.

Financial performance and outlook

In the first quarter of fiscal year 2024, Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) reported robust financial results, marked by a 2.6% year-over-year revenue increase and significant earnings per share (EPS) beat. Regional performances were particularly notable, with record volumes in key markets like Colombia and Mexico.

Sequential improvement in U.S. market share, coupled with strong growth in the spirits-based ready-to-drink segment, underscored the company’s diversified revenue streams. Looking ahead, BUD maintains a positive outlook, aligning with its medium-term EBITDA growth projections of 4% to 8%, despite macroeconomic uncertainties.

Evolving consumer preferences

Despite recent positive strides, Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) faces nuanced market dynamics and evolving consumer preferences. While Q1 results showcased resilience, concerns linger over sustained beer consumption declines and competitive pressures.

Analyst sentiments vary, with some downgrading BUD’s rating amidst pricing challenges and uncertainties in core brand performance. Additionally, debt management remains a focal point, as BUD continues to deleverage post-merger with SABMiller. As the company seeks to navigate these complexities, investors are scrutinizing its valuation metrics and long-term growth prospects.

Now that we’ve thoroughly examined Anheuser-Busch InBev’s recent performance and market context, it’s imperative to transition into a deeper analysis of its stock trajectory through technical analysis. By delving into the charts and patterns, we can gain valuable insights into the historical price movements and potential future directions of BUD’s stock.

Bulls on hold: Opportunities beyond the $68 hurdle

Despite the recent surge following the Q1 results, it’s important to acknowledge that BUD’s stock remains significantly below its historical peaks. Notably, it trails its all-time high of $136.08 from September 2016 and the previous long-term swing high of $79.67 set in June 2021. Since June 2021, the stock has attempted three times to breach the $68 mark, including the most recent attempt this month, all ending in failure.

(Click on image to enlarge)

BUD chart by TradingView

Given the robust resistance encountered at $68, our recommendation for bullish investors and traders is to exercise patience. Waiting for a weekly closing above this level before considering entry could mitigate risk and optimize potential returns.

Conversely, traders with a bearish perspective may find an opportune entry point around $65. Establishing short positions at this level, with a stop loss set at $68.2, offers a strategic approach. Should the stock’s downward momentum persist, as evidenced over the past few days, it could revisit its medium-term support near $52.2, providing a viable profit-taking opportunity.

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