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The world’s biggest asset manager knows a lot about the law of large numbers. BlackRock (BLK), opens new tab, with more than $11 trillion in assets under management, laid out on Thursday just how vast its key metrics may become at an investor day. Projections call for revenue hitting $35 billion in 2030, up 75% from last year. Half of that target comes from an aggressive push into private markets and technology services, a makeover that it reckons could double its market value. Impressive, but it bakes in a boost from recent acquisitions and assumes essentially no increase in investor enthusiasm. Boss Larry Fink’s legacy-defining transformation has been expensive; the promises flowing from it, thus far, are measured.

It’s clear that the company’s 72-year-old co-founder and CEO is committed to an overhaul. A trio of deals struck last year solidified its ambitions in so-called alternative assets, most recently the $12 billion purchase of private credit shop HPS, inked in December and expected to close in July. It followed the $3 billion deal for private markets data firm Preqin and a $12.5 billion one for asset manager Global Infrastructure Partners.

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Bar chart showing the growth in BlackRock’s annual revenue.

Indeed, the M&A gives BlackRock a big head start. The company aims to generate 30% of its anticipated revenue from private markets and technology, or $10.5 billion, up from 15%, or roughly $3 billion, last year. But that starting figure includes only a partial contribution from the GIP deal, which closed in October, and none from HPS or Preqin. Judging by metrics disclosed when they were announced, these acquisitions should lift the racier part of BlackRock’s business up closer to $5 billion in revenue. The remaining distance to the turn-of-the-decade goal shrinks further if the firm just keeps pace with private markets writ large. Investors surveyed by Carne Group estimate that the value of private capital assets, opens new tab could increase 62% to $21 trillion by 2030.

None of that is to say that BlackRock’s proposed 2030 goal is not ambitious or without risk. All transformations are, especially for a gigantic incumbent. BlackRock will still have to produce above-industry growth to hit its goals. Yet its targets include adjusted operating income rising from $8 billion last year to $15 billion in 2030, resulting in a roughly steady margin. Its $280 billion market value aspiration represents a similar multiple of that sum to today’s, though executives said this could expand. For now, Fink’s empire is steadily pacing towards something big, but plausibly within its grasp.

Context News

• Asset manager BlackRock held an investor day on June 12, where it projected that revenue could grow to $35 billion by 2030, up from $20 billion in 2024. Over that timeframe, it expects that the share of revenue generated from technology and private markets, where it has been expanding through acquisitions, would rise to 30%, up from 15%.
• The company reiterated that its $12 billion acquisition of private credit manager HPS Investment Partners is expected to close on July 1.

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