Indices are reaching an end point in their relief bounces, but the asset that is most likely to break lower is Bitcoin (BTCUSD). It's generating spike highs at channel resistance with a significant drop in volume and 200-day MA overhead resistance. Technicals are net bullish, but someway from reaching an overbought state, which may help it break the channel and catch shorts unaware, but I think this will head lower.

Indices had a bearish combo with a 'black' candlestick yesterday and a doji today. The S&P managed a weak MACD 'buy' from well below the bullish zero line.

The Nasdaq likewise posted the bearish 'black' candlestick at swing low and 20-day MA resistance. There are two 'buy' triggers for the MACD and On-Balance-Volume to go with an acceleration in relative performance against the Russell 2000 (IWM).

The Russell 2000 (IWM) also has the 'black' candlestick/doji combo, but it's well away from swing low and 20-day MA resistance. It's vulnerable to sellers, but is already deeply oversold. It may be the quickest to retest the April swing low at $171 - watch closely.

For tomorrow, sellers are likely to make an appearance, although hopefully not the rout we saw on Trump's tariffs announcement. Shorts can look to Bitcoin as a trade opportunity.

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