Summary

• Beware of FOMO; use short, medium, and long-term charts to decide when to buy or sell stocks.

• Short-term chart: Trend Seeker for buy/caution, 50-day moving average for exit, 50-day low Turtle Channel for hard stop.

• Medium-term chart: Trend Seeker for buy/caution, 100-day moving average for exit, 200-day moving average for hard stop.

• Long-term chart: Weekly Trend Seeker for buy, 50-week moving average for exit and hard stop; choose chart based on your trading style.

Beware of FOMO?  That's the Fear Of Missing Out.  The irrational feeling you get when you think you might be left behind.

Right now I hear two different choirs:  One is singing:"Is it too late to get out?"  and the other is singing just as loudly:"Is it too soon to get back in?"  Which choir are you in?

Over the years I've used 3 different charts to help me decide:  One short term, one medium term and one long term --- Kind of like the 3 bears.

Each uses the price, the Trend Seeker as a buy or caution sign, a moving average as a possible exit price and below it all a hard stop that I never ignore.

My biggest reason for a hard stop is that is my maximum tolerance for pain -- The pain I feel when a Black Swan event that I never saw coming hits either one of my positions or even worse the whole market.

If you think Black Swan events don't come along very often look at the market today:

1. 52 of the Nasdaq 100 stocks are selling at a loss of 20% or more from their 52 Week High
2. 325 of the S&P 500 stocks are selling at a loss of 20% or more from their 52 Week High
3. 543 of the Russell 3000 stocks are selling at a loss of 20% or more from their 52 Week High

How many stocks are you still holding that are 20% or more than their 52 Week High?

Let's use the 3 S&P 500 (IVV) charts as an example:

My short term chart includes the Price, Trend Seeker, 50 day Moving Average and the 50 Day Hi/Lo Turtle channel

In this chart the Trend Seeker is my buy in/caution signal, the 50 day moving average is my exit signal and the 50 Lo Turtle Channel is my hard stop.

500 short (Barchart)

My medium chart uses the price, the Trend Seeker, the 20, 50, 100 and 200 Day Moving Average

In this chart the Trend Seeker is my Buy in/caution signal, the 100 Day Moving Average as my exit signal and the 200 Day Moving average is my Hard Stop

500 medium (Barchart)

My Long Term chart uses Weekly instead of daily data and includes the Weekly Price, Weekly Trend Seeker and the 50 Week Moving Average.

The Weekly Trend Seeker is my Buy In Signals and the 50 Week Moving Average is both my Exit and Hard Stop.

500 Long (Barchart)

If you are a Trader consider using the Short Term Chart.

If you are a Momentum Investor or Technical Trader consider the Medium Term Chart.

If you are a Long Term or Fundamental Investor consider the Long Term Chart

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