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BigBear.ai (BBAI) was rejected at the $7.8 to $8.2 range this summer and declined all the way to $4.7 in September, before rising again to $8 and being rejected again. This October, however, BBAI stock has entered this uncertain zone again, and this time it has more momentum. The stock momentarily crossed $8.75 on Friday, October 10, before correcting.

The company has a little more going for it now, as management raised cash to $391 million. This means it has a 3-quarter cash runway before it has to raise cash again. This seems enough for the company to potentially land another contract and convert the hype from that into more cash through an at-the-market offering.

BigBear.ai posted $449 million in trailing 12-month losses.

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Should you buy or sell BBAI stock today?

BigBear.ai is still where it was a few weeks ago, when it was rejected at $8. However, what’s different is that seasonal trends are in your favor.

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Late September to early October has already started on a strong note, and the coming months could be similarly bullish if trends hold up.

That said, I would not buy unless you can stomach a 40-50% drop from here. BigBear.ai is expected to report its Q3 2025 earnings on November 4, 2025. The company has been on a significant streak of missing earnings estimates.

As such, Q3 is likely to be just another miss and could be the catalyst that takes BBAI stock down once more.

But the prospect of BigBear.ai turning into “Palantir lite” is still there, and it may be worth buying as a very speculative bet. However, I see another rejection here and a decline back to the $5 range unless it can land a contract soon.

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