Image courtesy of 123rf.com

For electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) flight to materialize, many conditions have to be met. Outside of technological and safety challenges, intra-regional commercial flying has to be favored by regulatory bodies and supported by infrastructure. In March 2025, China was the first to materialize these conditions with EHang’s autonomous EH216-S full certification to conduct urban air mobility (UAM), beating both the US and EU. In the United States, Archer Aviation (NYSE: ACHR) is one of the top air taxi companies to consider for this niche exposure. According to Research and Markets, UAM market size should reach $37.22 billion by 2033, giving investors an expected CAGR of ~26% from 2023’s $3.6 billion.

Archer Aviation’s Approach to eVTOL

The aforementioned EH216-S from Chinese EHang is priced at around $333,000, with a range of 30 km for two passengers. For comparison, an entry level helicopter Robinson R44 Raven II costs around $500,000, able to carry three passengers across 453 km. Of course, the cost of a flight with a helicopter is further exacerbated as it includes pilot services, unlike with the autonomous EH216-S.

Archer Aviation’s approach follows “realistic innovation” philosophy, which translates into a larger and more capable craft. Unlike EHang’s drone-like design, Archer’s Midnight model is more like a traditional plane but with vectored-thrust lift. Midnight has six tilt-rotors that transition from vertical to horizontal alignment to combine with its six fixed-wing rotors.

Altogether, this hybrid 12-rotor design, powered by 6 battery packs, is more robust with a top cruising speed of 150mph (241km/h) and a range up to 50 miles (80km), able to carry up to four passengers. The rotor shift configuration also means that the eVTOL is noisier upon take-off and landing (~65 dB) but quieter during the actual flight at around ~45 dB.

For comparison, a light helicopter is drastically louder, at around 100 dB from 100 feet away. At levels above 85 dB, human hearing is already in jeopardy after prolonged exposure. After more than four years of test flights, it is fair to say that Archer’s Midnight specs already fulfill the necessary requirements for UAM.

Case in point, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) specifications for gyroplanes’ noise levels, as of March 2025, state that the maximum allowable noise level, up to 600 kg take-off mass, is 70.8 dB. Over 1,500 kg, the limit is 85 dB. Midnight’s maximum takeoff weight is 3,175 kg, with the craft well under the noise level for even lighter craft.

How Close is Archer to Commercial Launch?

On June 11th, the White House announced another executive order (EO) from President Trump. This time, it pertained to the acceleration of domestic drone production and the development of eVTOLs for the purpose of air taxis and defense logistics.

White House Office of Science and Technology Policy Director Michael Kratsios described the previous regulatory landscape as “burdensome red tape” and “regulatory gridlock”. This is good news for Archer Aviation, already having ties with the industrial-military complex and emerging players aligned with the Trump administration.

“This Executive Order is a seminal moment for Archer and the eVTOL industry.”

CEO of Archer Aviation, Adam Goldstein

Namely, the company partnered up with rising Anduril Industries in late 2024 for the development of hybrid VTOL military aircraft within its Archer Defense division, having added $430 million funding in the process. Previously, we covered the ties between Palantir and Anduril, as a broader push for a new type of hegemony technology.

After the most recent EO last week, Archer raised another $850 million. For the LA 28 Olympic Games, the company was exclusively selected in May to be the official air taxi provider.

In early June, Archer successfully completed piloted take-offs and landings, with test pilot Jeff Greenwood noting that “everything responded exactly as we trained for”.

At present, Archer Aviation completed FAA certifications for Maintenance & Repair, Air Carrier & Operator, and Final Airworthiness. Means of Compliance (MOC) certification is still in progress, as well as Production certification.

In the meantime, the company gathered three “Launch Edition” partners, from Indonesian IKN and UAE’s Abu Dhabi Aviation to Ethiopian Airlines. The UAE deployment of Midnight eVTOLs should begin in late 2025.

On the domestic front, Archer plans to link Manhattan with regional airports/heliports by partnering with United Airlines. This would shorten congested 2-hour drives to just 15-minute flights.

Archer’s Earnings and Stock Price Targets

For Q1 2025, Archer Aviation reported a net loss of $93.4 million, which is not surprising in this pre-launch stage. The company now holds just over $1 billion in cash reserves, securing a feasible long development and deployment Midnight runway.

Year-to-date, ACHR stock is up nearly 9% to the present price of $10.41 per share, above its average 52-week price of $6.60 per share. The stock’s all-time high was $17.14 in February 2021.

According to WSJ’s forecasting data, the average ACHR price target is $12.28 per share, with the bottom of $4.50 and a ceiling of $18 per share. At the present price level, zero analysts recommend selling the stock.

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