Apple's Report Adds To Tech's Earnings Momentum

Apple’s (AAPL - Analyst Report) better than expected earnings report follows strong readings from other Tech sector bellwethers like Google’s parent Alphabet (GOOGL - Analyst Report), Microsoft (MSFT - Analyst Report) and Amazon (AMZN - Analyst Report). Amazon is basically a retailer, but it’s ability to turn that space upside down has been a function of its Tech prowess that has forced others like Wal-Mart (WMT - Analyst Report) and Best Buy (BBY - Analyst Report) to reposition their respective businesses.

The Tech sector has stood out in this otherwise weak Q3 earnings season from most other sectors. Including this evening’s Apple report, we now have Q3 reports from 32 of the 64 Tech companies in the S&P 500 that combined account for 65.6% of the sector’s total market cap in the index. Total earnings for these 32 Tech companies are up +9.2% from the same period last year on +5.3% higher revenues, with 68.8% beating EPS estimates and 62.5% beating revenue estimates. This is a better performance than we have seen from this same group of 32 Tech companies in other recent periods, as the comparison charts below show.

The S&P 500 Scorecard (as of October 27th, 2015)

Including this afternoon’s results from the likes of Apple, Gilead (GILD) and others, we now have Q3 results from 227 S&P 500 members that combined account for 56.6% of the index’s total market capitalization. Total earnings for these 227 companies are up +3.8% from the period last year, with 70.6% beating earnings estimates. Total revenues for these companies are down -0.9% from the same period last year, with only 42.1% beating top-line estimates.

Here is the current scorecard for the 227 S&P 500 companies that have reported results already.

This is weak performance compared to what we have seen from the same group of companies in other recent quarters, particularly on the revenue side, as the charts below shows.

The left-hand side chart compares the earnings and revenue growth rates for these 227 S&P 500 members with what these same companies reported in the preceding quarter and the average growth rates for these companies in the preceding four quarters (the 4-quarter average is through 2015 Q2). The right-hand side chart does the same comparison for these 227 S&P 500 members, but compares only the earnings and revenue beat ratios. Please note that the earnings growth picture takes a beating once strong results from Bank of America (BAC - Analyst Report) are excluded from the aggregate growth picture (BAC benefited from easy comparisons). Excluding Bank of America, the Q3 earnings growth rate drops to +1.2%, which compares to +2.4% growth from the same ex-BAC cohort in Q2 and the 4-quarter average earnings growth rate of +7.5%.

The overall picture for Q3, combing the actual results of the 227 S&P 500 members that have reported results to estimates for the still-to-come 273 index members, is expecting total earnings to decline -2.9% from the same period last year on -4.1% lower revenues. This would follow earnings decline of -2.1% on -5.7% lower revenues in Q2.

Q4 Estimates Coming Down

Estimates for the current period are coming down as companies report Q3 results and guide lower for the current period. Total Q4 earnings for the S&P 500 index are currently expected to be down -6.4% from the same period last year, which is down from an expected decline of -1.3% about four weeks back. The magnitude of negative revisions to the Q4 earnings estimates is greater than what we saw in the comparable periods for the preceding two quarters.

The Tech sector earnings momentum is no doubt welcome, but the fact remains that the picture emerging from the Q3 earnings season as a whole is one of all around weakness, with top-lines under pressure and estimates for the current period coming down at an accelerated pace following weak management guidance.

Disclosure: None.

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Joe Economy 8 years ago Member's comment

Apple's stock price dropped slightly yesterday pre earnings but added about $2 in overnight trading. Fears of oversupply of iphones and supply company concerns seemed to be causing jitters in the stock.