Analysts See Peloton As Good Fit For Apple And Amazon, Not So Much For Nike

Shares of Peloton (PTON) have jumped in Monday morning trading following media reports saying the company is attracting interest from suitors, including Amazon (AMZN), Nike (NKE), and potentially Apple (AAPL). Commenting on the news, Stifel analyst Scott Devitt said he believes Peloton "would fit" with any large technology or consumer platform, an opinion shared by his peer at KeyBanc who sees it as having "significant value" to a potential acquirer.

Discussing the possible suitors mentioned in the media reports, Truist analyst Youssef Squali told investors that there are "several potential benefits" from Amazon buying Peloton, while Wedbush's Daniel Ives believes an acquisition would make strategic sense for Apple. Regarding Nike, Wedbush analyst Tom Nikic told investors that while there's a lot to like about the company, a potential Peloton acquisition "isn't one of them."

PELOTON SUITORS: Peloton (PTON) is attracting interest from potential suitors including Amazon.com, The Wall Street Journal's Cara Lombardo, Miriam Gottfried and Dana Cimilluca reported on Friday evening, citing people familiar with the matter. Amazon has been speaking to advisers about a potential deal, some of the people said. There's no guarantee it will follow through with an offer or that Peloton, which is working with its own advisers, would be receptive, the authors noted.

Meanwhile, Financial Times' James Fontanella-Khan, Sara Germano, Dave Lee, and Patrick McGee reported that Nike is evaluating a bid for Peloton, which is under fire from an activist investor who has urged the board to fire its CEO and explore a sale. Amazon, which is separately evaluating a bid for Peloton, and Nike have not held any talks with Peloton and the considerations are preliminary, according to people briefed on the matter. Other buyers are also likely to emerge, potentially including Apple and large private equity buyers, according to the sources that spoke to FT.

'SIGNIFICANT VALUE': While Stifel analyst Scott Devitt acknowledged that he doesn't have any information regarding the possibilities of a transaction, he argued that Peloton "would fit with any large technology or consumer platform in the health and fitness category." The analyst "will reserve judgment" on strategic value assessments, but feels comfortable with a view that it would exceed his current valuation estimate. Devitt has a Buy rating and $40 price target on Peloton shares.

Also commenting on the news, KeyBanc analyst Edward Yruma thinks Peloton's connected fitness ecosystem has "significant value" to a potential acquirer. The analyst pointed out, however, that Peloton management and a recent share A offering "adds complexity to a sale process at current levels." With that said, Yruma believes Peloton's fitness content can add significant value either as a standalone membership or as part of an existing subscription offering for strategic acquirers. He kept an Overweight rating on Peloton with a $60 price target.

BENEFITS FROM AMAZON ACQUISITION: Truist analyst Youssef Squali kept a Hold rating on Peloton Interactive with a $68 price target after the Wall Street Journal reported that Amazon.com has met with advisors about a potential deal for the company. Peloton has recently been pressured by activist shareholder Blackwells Capital to fire its CEO and pursue a sale of the business, Squali added, highlighting that other potential buyers being mentioned in the media include Nike, Apple, and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL). If Peloton's founders and largest shareholders are open to a takeout, Amazon and Apple are the most likely suitors for the company, the analyst argued. For Amazon in particular, he sees "several potential benefits" from a Peloton acquisition. He noted that with the potential suitors having the financial wherewithal to "comfortably carry out such transaction," a competitive bid could ensue, driving Peloton's price higher in the process. However, Squali views Peloton's recent developments as near-term risks to the business and to a potential take-out.

STRATEGIC SENSE FOR APPLE: Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives told investors in a research note of his own that with media reports swirling that Peloton could be up for sale, and with Amazon and Nike called out as potential suitors, he would be shocked if Apple is not aggressively involved in this potential deal process. With Peloton stock down 80%-plus from pandemic highs on the heels of demand/growth concerns, work from home waning, and a handful of execution issues, Ives believes there will be a handful of technology and consumer brand stalwarts circling for a potential bid with activists also pushing a sale. For Apple, acquiring Peloton would be a major strategic coup and catalyze the company's aggressive health and fitness initiatives over the coming years, the analyst contends. With about 2.8 million paid subscriptions today and a very strong/unique competitive moat, Apple acquiring Peloton would be both an offensive and defensive acquisition in his opinion. Ives has an Outperform rating and a price target of $200 on Apple's shares.

RATIONALE NOT CLEAR-CUT: Commenting on the Financial Times report saying that Nike is in the early stages of considering an offer to acquire the home-fitness equipment maker, Wedbush analyst Tom Nikic said that while he believes there's a lot to like about Nike, a potential Peloton acquisition "isn't one of them." First off, it sounds like things are simply in the exploratory stage right now, and it's very possible that nothing materializes, Nikic argued. Secondly, he is skeptical that a deal would even make strategic/financial sense, given the hefty losses Nike would have to absorb and the fact that it may detract from the company's robust growth opportunities in its core business. While the analyst will continue to monitor the situation, he thinks "it's mostly noise." Nikic has an Outperform rating and a price target of $185 on the shares.

TAKEOVER UNLIKELY: Cowen analyst John Blackledge kept an Outperform rating on Peloton following the news, saying that while Amazon is pursuing fitness initiatives, he is skeptical that the bike-making company would be receptive to offers. Peloton CEO John Foley and President William Lynch hold greater than 50% of the voting share, making a deal unlikely, Blackledge contended. Further, he pointed out that with Peloton's dual class share structure, a handful of insiders hold the vast majority of super-voting shares. The analyst also believes Amazon would not be an ideal strategic fit.

PRICE ACTION: In Monday morning trading, shares of Peloton have jumped over 21% to $29.82.

Disclosure: None

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