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Amazon (AMZN) is showing signs of recovery after a recent multi-week downtrend.

The stock has rebounded and climbed back above key technical indicators, signaling potential renewed strength for long-term invest

Despite the recent dip, Amazon continues to double down on its AI infrastructure, reinforcing its long-term growth strategy.

In this post, I’ll apply the Invest Diva Diamond Analysis (IDDA) framework to determine whether Amazon’s pullback presents a potential buying opportunity.

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Video Length: 02:45:54

IDDA Point 1 & 2: Capital & Intentional

Investors should evaluate their financial goals and risk tolerance before investing in Amazon.

• Select your investments based on your own goals, timeline, and risk profile.
• Consider whether Amazon’s long-term AI focus aligns with your values and strategy.

If you’re investing for long-term growth and can tolerate some short-term volatility, Amazon may be a strong candidate for your portfolio.

IDDA Point 3: Fundamental

🔷 Growth Through Reinvestment

Amazon continues to channel its resources into expanding high-growth segments—especially artificial intelligence and cloud computing through AWS, which many analysts believe could eventually rival the value of the entire company.

🔷 Capital Expenditure (CapEx) Strategy

Amazon plans to invest over $100 billion in 2025, mostly in AWS, data centers, and AI infrastructure. That level of spending is similar to what entire countries are investing in national AI initiatives.

🔷 Valuation Opportunity

Many analysts agree that Amazon is currently undervalued. Morningstar believes Amazon is currently trading at a 14% discount to its fair value.

IDDA Point 4: Sentimental

Bullish Outlook:

✅ Amazon’s AI investments are paying off, particularly through AWS, which is growing revenue rapidly with high margins.

✅ Amazon’s global reach, scale, and logistics network continue to create strong competitive advantages.

✅ Ads and e-commerce platforms are gaining efficiency through automation and smarter monetization.

Bearish Outlook:

❌ Massive spending on infrastructure may reduce short-term profitability.

❌ A U.S. antitrust case could eventually pose challenges to Amazon’s integrated business model.

❌ Amazon’s recent ad revenue strength has been boosted by Chinese retailers like Temu and Shein. If those companies reduce spending due to regulatory changes or strategy shifts, Amazon could feel the impact.

IDDA Point 5: Technical Analysis

➡️ Technical Setup (Daily & Weekly Time Frame):

Daily:

🔷Recently closed back above the 200-day moving average — a potential sign of recovery.

🔷The Ichimoku Cloud is acting as a resistance. Possible consolidation bandwidth between $186 and $208. 

While the recent close above the 200-day moving average suggests a possible recovery, the Ichimoku Cloud continues to act as resistance. I’m anticipating a potential consolidation range between $186 and $208. 

\Weekly: 

🔷Long-term Ichimoku Cloud signals are bullish. 

🔷RSI is trending upward, suggesting bullish momentum

The cloud has acted as a key level of support since 2023. Based on historical trading patterns, the stock could find consolidation between $186 and $208 before continuing on a potential bullish long term trend.

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Suggested Buy Limit (BL) Ideas: 

📌 $197.74 – (High Risk) 

📌 $187.26 – (Moderate Risk) 

📌 $172.07 – (Low Risk)

Profit Taking (PT) Ideas: 

📌 $221.21 

📌 $242.32

Here are the Invest Diva ‘Confidence Compass’ questions to ask yourself before buying at each level:

1. If I buy at this price and the price drops by another 50%, how would I feel? Would I panic, or would I buy more to dollar-cost average at lower prices?
2. If I don’t buy at this price and the market suddenly turns around and starts going up again, will I beat myself up for not having bought at this level?

Remember: Investing is personal. Always do your own due diligence and invest according to your risk tolerance and financial goals.

IDDA Overall

Amazon’s current pullback reflects short-term market concerns, but its fundamentals remain strong.

The company’s continued dominance in AWS, combined with its reinvestment-driven strategy and growing advertising business, makes it well-positioned for the future.

Its current valuation presents a compelling opportunity for long-term investors.

➡️ Recommendation: Amazon remains a Buy for long-term investors seeking exposure to AI, cloud infrastructure, and scalable tech growth.

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