Alkermes: Commercialization Program On Track, Sales Coming In Strong

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The bigger biotechs have done a good job lately, with solid earnings to date. Speaking of which, Alkermes plc (ALKS) has recently exceeded estimates, notes John McCamant, editor of The Medical Technology Stock Letter.

The company recently reported strong Q4 22 earnings, with total revenue coming at $305 million, above the consensus estimate of $290 million. Lybalvi sales came in at $35 million, above the consensus of $34 million, bringing full-year sales to $96 million.

In 2023, we expect continued execution of the commercial strategy and investment in the DTC campaign will allow the company to exceed analyst’s estimates for Lybalvi.

ALKS also provided first-time FY23 guidance, including total revenues of $1.13-$1.25 billion, Lybalvi sales of $180-$205 million, Aristada sales of $315-$345 million, and Vivitrol sales of $380-$410 million.

The company is doing a good job of building market awareness for Lybaldi, which has only been on the market since Oct. 2021. In 2023, we expect continued execution of the commercial strategy and investment in the DTC campaign will allow Alkermes to exceed analyst’s estimates for Lybalvi.

The company will advance its orexin 2 receptor agonist with the goal of their Phase I program to establish initial safety and a tolerability profile, as well as generate initial clinical proof-of-concept (POC) data for ALKS 2680.

In our view, strong Lybalvi sales and positive POC data for ‘2680 both have the potential to serve as stock catalysts for ALKS in 2023. ALKS, in our opinion, is a buy under $35 with a target price of $55.


About the Author

John McCamant was named editor of the Medical Technology Stock Letter in August 2000. He has spent 35 years on the front lines of biotechnology investing as an equities analyst. His expertise in biotechnology investments is a subject of media interest, and he is frequently consulted and quoted by The Washington Post, BusinessWeek, Reuters, and Bloomberg.


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