Abbvie Inc. Dividend Stock Analysis
Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Abbvie Inc. (ABBV). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:
Company Description: Abbvie Inc. is a global research-based pharmaceuticals business that emerged as a separate entity following its spin-off from Abbott Laboratories at the start of 2013. AbbVie's key drug is Humira for rheumatoid arthritis.
Fair Value: In calculating fair value, I consider the NPV MMA Differential Fair Value along with these four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number
ABBV is trading at a discount to only 2.) above. Since ABBV's tangible book value is not meaningful, a Graham number can not be calculated. When also considering the NPV MMA Differential, the stock is trading at a 15.6% discount to its calculated fair value of $164.31. ABBV earned a Star in this section since it is trading at a fair value.
Dividend Analytical Data: In this section, there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%
ABBV earned two Stars in this section for 1.) and 3.) above. A Star was earned since the Free Cash Flow payout ratio was less than 60% and there were no negative Free Cash Flows over the last 10 years. ABBV earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1926 and has increased its dividend payments for 51 consecutive years.
Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA) or Treasury bond? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high-yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA
ABBV earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of $1,247 This amount is in excess of the $500 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as ABBV has. The stock's current yield of 4.22% exceeds the 3.75% estimated 20-year average MMA rate.
Peers: The company's peer group includes: Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK) with a 2.7% yield, Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) with a 3.5% yield, and Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) with a 1.0% yield.\
Conclusion: ABBV earned one Star in the Fair Value section, earned two Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section, and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of four Stars. This quantitatively ranks ABBV as a 4-Star Strong stock
Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to increase to $185.36 before ABBV's NPV MMA Differential decreased to the $500 minimum that I look for in a stock with 51 years of consecutive dividend increases (streak includes predecessor companies increases). At that price the stock would yield 4.22%.
Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $500 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 2.8%. This dividend growth rate is below the 5.8% used in this analysis, thus providing a large margin of safety. ABBV has a risk rating of 1.5 which classifies it as a Low risk stock.
Like all pharmaceutical companies, ABBV is faced with competition from generics, pricing restraints and R&D related risks. Humira, ABBV's primary drug, is facing shrinking market share in Europe following the introduction of biosimilars. The stock's Free Cash Flow payout of 44% (down from 45%) is within my acceptable range, while and its Debt To Total Capital of 82% (flat with prior) is well above my desired maximum. ABBV is currently trading well below my calculated fair value of $164.31. I plan to continue watching the company's dividend fundamentals and allocation before adding to my position.
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Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I was long ABBV (5.9% of my Dividend Growth Portfolio). See a list of all more