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The number is in… and it wasn’t great. Today’s economic data dump showed growth shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025 - the first decline since 2022’s kinda-sorta recession-lite.

One more quarter of contraction and we’re in a recession.

The markets know this, and they’re not crazy about it, and what volume there was was largely into selling tech stocks. (Nvidia picked up another downgrade, but that’s a whole ‘nother story.)
We got a 38-handle decline on the S&P 500, after the bulls fought back a little at midday.

I’m surprised it wasn’t worse. I mean, these numbers were bad. The ADP jobs report was extremely weak, too, and the cherry on top was a PCE number that showed inflation is still on the hot side.

There’s more data coming, too. Nonfarm payrolls, a ton of earnings like Meta, Microsoft, and Apple.

All this comes during a week when we’ve got a $150 expected move on SPX.

Let’s take a look at what that means, how we can make sense of the price data (the data that counts at the end of the day), and how to play it…

Video Length: 00:12:08

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