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Rising oil prices are putting pressure on the refining business, as higher input costs are squeezing margins. Additionally, a slowdown in oil production growth is likely to reduce profits from the upstream operations of integrated energy companies. The increasing demand for renewable energy is also casting a shadow over the future of the Zacks Oil and Gas Integrated International industry, making the outlook appear increasingly uncertain.

Among the companies in the industry that will probably survive the business challenges are Chevron Corporation (CVX - Free Report), Shell plc (SHEL - Free Report), BP plc (BP - Free Report), and Eni SpA (E - Free Report).

About the Industry

The Zacks Oil and Gas Integrated International industry covers companies primarily involved in upstream, midstream, and downstream operations. These companies have upstream businesses in the United States (including prolific shale plays and the deepwater Gulf of Mexico), Asia, South America, Africa, Australia, and Europe.

Midstream operations of energy companies entail transporting oil, natural gas liquids, and refined petroleum products. In downstream businesses, the firms buy raw crude to produce refined petroleum products. The companies’ downstream activities involve chemical businesses that manufacture raw materials for making plastics.

The integrated players are now gradually focusing on renewables, leading to the energy transition. The firms aim to lower emissions from operations and cut the carbon intensity of the products sold.

3 Trends Shaping the Future of the Industry

Refining Business Grapple with Cost Pressures: With oil prices recently trading above the $70 per barrel mark, integrated energy companies are facing significant pressure on their refining businesses. The higher cost of crude oil, a key input for producing end products like gasoline and jet fuel, is driving up production costs for refiners.

This rise in input costs makes it more challenging for refiners to maintain profitability, as they either have to pass these costs on to consumers or absorb them, both of which can negatively impact their financial performance. 

Slowdown in Production Growth to Hurt Upstream Business: There has been a slowdown in oil production growth in the upstream businesses of integrated energy companies in the United States, driven by shareholder demands for a greater focus on returning capital rather than investing in production expansion.

As production growth slows, output decreases, which can lead to reduced revenues. Since upstream operations depend heavily on volume to generate income, any stagnation in production growth has a direct and negative impact on their bottom line.

Growing Demand for Renewables a Concern: Governments, investors, and stakeholders are placing growing emphasis on addressing climate change, leading to an increased demand for renewable energy. Consequently, the demand for products reliant on oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids is expected to decline, with solar and wind energy gaining prominence in the energy landscape.

The integrated energy firms are adversely impacted by these trends as the companies are primarily engaged in the production and transportation of fossil fuels, such as oil, and selling refined petroleum products.

The Zacks Industry Rank Indicates Bearish Outlook

The Zacks Oil and Gas Integrated International industry is part of the broader Zacks Oil - Energy sector. It carries a Zacks Industry Rank #194, which places it in the bottom 22% of more than 250 Zacks industries.

The group’s Zacks Industry Rank, which is basically the average of the Zacks Rank of all the member stocks, indicates bleak near-term prospects. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.

Before we present a few stocks that you may want to consider, let’s take a look at the industry’s recent stock market performance and valuation picture.

The Industry Underperforms Sector and S&P 500

The Zacks Oil and Gas Integrated International industry has underperformed the broader Zacks Oil - Energy sector and the Zacks S&P 500 composite over the past year. The industry has declined 6.7% over this period, compared to the S&P 500’s gain of 30.5% and the broader sector’s rise of 7.7%.

One-Year Price Performance

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The Industry's Current Valuation

Since oil and gas companies are debt-laden, it makes sense to value them based on the Enterprise Value/Earnings before Interest Tax Depreciation and Amortization (EV/EBITDA) ratio. This is because the valuation metric takes not just equity into account, but also the level of debt.

On the basis of the trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA, the industry has recently been seen trading at 3.87X, which is lower than the S&P 500’s 18.71X. It is, however, above the sector’s trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA of 3.12X.

Over the past five years, the industry has traded as high as 6.07X, as low as 2.56X, and with a median of 4.02X.

Trailing 12-Month EV/EBITDA Ratio

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

4 Integrated International Stocks to Keep a Close Eye On - BP 

This British energy giant is planning to become a net-zero emissions company by 2050 or sooner. The integrated company aims to invest in and develop a renewable energy generation capacity of 20 gigawatts by 2025.

Currently carrying a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) rating, BP also has robust upstream and downstream operations. Notably, during periods of low oil prices, BP can rely on its strong downstream and marketing activities to support its financial performance.

Price and Consensus: BP

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Shell

In the liquified natural gas space, Shell is among the leading global players. Also, the rapid growth of its renewable business is among Shell's core strategies. On the renewable energy front, Shell has almost 47 gigawatts of renewable generation capacity, considering projects that are either in operation, under construction, or in the pipeline.

Thus, for renewables and energy solutions, Shell, with a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), is investing actively in solar energy, wind energy, electric vehicle charging, and others.

Price and Consensus: SHEL

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Eni S.p.A.

Eni is leading the energy transition as well. The integrated energy player has been building a full set of decarbonized products and services for clients to achieve carbon neutrality by mid-century. Even though the energy business scenario is challenging, Eni’s efficient exploration keeps it highly competitive.

Price and Consensus: E

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Chevron

In the Permian — the most prolific basin in the United States — Chevron is among the largest producers of oil and natural gas, securing a solid production outlook. Also, the large integrated energy player, with a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), maintains a conservative stance when it comes to capital spending, resulting in handsome generations in cashflows.

Price and Consensus: CVX

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research 

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