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Alright, folks, let’s clear the smoke on this one—the CPI print came in soft, and Wall Street threw a little party. But before you start popping champagne corks, let’s get something straight: this “disinflation” doesn’t mean inflation’s gone. It means inflation’s slower. The car’s still moving, we’ve just eased off the gas a bit.

Now, let me walk you through what I’m seeing from both a trading and macro perspective… 

We had ES futures trade beautifully off that monkey bar level. Target was 60/40 - bang on. I don't say that for the ego boost, I say it because it's tied to real structure, not hype. That rally into 60/60? That wasn’t random. Volume flipped bullish, price moved accordingly, and we got a textbook reversal setup with a bearish divergence right where we expected.

But the bigger story here is inflation. Yeah, CPI dropped from 0.2% to 0.1% month-over-month. Sure, core CPI also fell. But dig deeper: the only reason that number looks better is energy. Gas, oil, related commodities are all down. Yet rents, shelter, food, medical? Still climbing. Energy pulled the average down, but your grocery bill sure didn’t.

Here’s the punchline: unless you're filling up your tank every other day and skipping meals, you didn’t save a dime. You still paid more to eat, to cool your house, and to keep a roof over your head. This isn’t deflation. It’s textbook disinflation. Slower, yes, but we’re still inflating.

And here’s where it gets actionable. Look at gold. If inflation really was dying, gold would sell off. Instead? It's consolidating in a bullish triangle. I’ve got 3904 as an upside breakout target. That’s not wishful thinking, just math. Same with silver. Strong breakout, just retested 52-week highs. There's room to run.

Meanwhile, the dollar is sliding. That’s the real tell. Against the euro, against the yen, against the peso—USD is under pressure. Which tells me one thing: look outside the U.S. for your trades. Country ETFs like EWG (Germany), EWJ (Japan), and EFA (developed markets ex-U.S.) are outperforming. These aren’t risky moonshots—they're trending higher with solid technicals and better inflation profiles.

So, what do you do?

You shift. You hedge. You rotate. Step out of the U.S. if you’re trying to dodge inflation’s long shadow. Trade metals for protection. Trade Europe for strength. Trade with intention.

Inflation didn’t go away. It just took a breath.

Let’s stay sharp.

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