Retail Sales Surged In 2023 Led By Autos & Food Services, Gas Station Sales Slumped
If BofA is right - and they usually have been - this morning's Retail Sales print will be a huge beat and provide more questions for those thinking about rate cuts and soft landings...
After an unexpectedly large rise in November, December saw a 0.6% MoM rise (hotter than the expected 0.4%, but less than BofA's surge expectations). That is the biggest jump since September and lifted the YoY change to +5.6% - its hottest since Jan 2023...
Source: Bloomberg
On a MoM basis, Gasoline Stations and Personal Healthcare stores saw sales decline while Motor Vehicle sales surged...
Source: Bloomberg
Both headline and core retail sales re-acclerated - ending up 5.6% YoY in 2023...
Source: Bloomberg
Gasoline Stations and Building Materials were the only segment that saw retail sales lower in 2023 with motor vehicles and Food Services up most...
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as a reminder, retail sales data is nominal - i.e. not adjusted for inflation. So is this just a reflection of falling gas prices and soaring food prices?
Certainly doesn't help the Goldilocks narrative.
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