Image Source: Pixabay

From reader JohnH in September 2022, who now states he “was not cheering a recession in mid-2022”.

…assuming, of course that we’re not already in a recession…following the major economic slowdown! Of course, the Recession Deniers try to not believe the GNP numbers–“Don’t worry; be happy!”

I don’t have a plot of GNP, but here’s GDP and other variables the NBER BCDC focuses on.

Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll employment incorporating benchmark revision (bold dark blue), implied level using Bloomberg consensus as of 2/1 and December 2023 NFP (blue +), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP, 3rd release (blue bars), GDPNow for 2024Q1 as of 2/1 (lilac box), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, BLS preliminary benchmark, Federal Reserve, BEA 2023Q3 2nd release incorporating comprehensive revisions, S&P Global Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (2/1/2024 release), and author’s calculations.

Note aside from manufacturing and trade industry sales and personal income ex-transfers and GDP, other series rise throughout 2022H1.

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