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The BEA combined the first and second estimates into a single release.
 

2025 Q3 GDP Key Numbers

GDP blasted higher in the delayed Third Quarter BEA GDP Release.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.3 percent in the third quarter of 2025 (July, August, and September), according to the initial estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.8 percent.

Due to the recent government shutdown, this initial report for the third quarter of 2025 replaces the release of the advance estimate originally scheduled for October 30 and the second estimate originally scheduled for November 26.

Key GDP Numbers

• Real GDP: 4.3 percent
• Real Final Sales: 4.6 percent
• Real Final Private Domestic Sales: 3.0 percent
• Real Final Domestic Sales: 2.9 percent
• Real GDI: 2.4 percent

Percentage Point Contributions to GDP
 

2025 Q3 Contributions to GDP

2025 Q3 GDP Percentage Point Contributions

• PCE Services: 1.74 PP
• PCE Goods: 0.66 PP
• Government: 0.39 PP
• Residential Investment: -0.21 PP
• Nonresidential Investment: 0.40 PP
• Change in Private Inventories: -0.22 PP
• Exports: 0.92 PP
• Imports: 0.67 PP

Understanding Imports

Imports do not add or subtract from GDP. The key word is “domestic”.

However, the BEA assumes all sales are domestic . So, the BEA then needs to subtract out imports.

Since imports declined in the third quarter, the BEA’s calculation shows a positive contribution.

Later today, I will post charts of how much AI contributed to third-quarter GDP.

As measured by GDP, the economy is humming. As measured by many other things, it’s not.

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December 4, 2025: Challenger Reports Employers Announced 71,321 Job Cuts in November

Announcements imply future, not immediate, layoffs and unemployment claims.

December 8, 2025: Health Care Inflation Bomb Makes the Fed’s 2 Percent Target Almost Impossible

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December 15, 2025: Only 56 Percent of Republicans Say the Economy Is Good

Among independents, the percentage drops to 19 percent.

Current Economic Conditions Sentiment Index Falls to a 50-Year Record Low

Finally, please note Current Economic Conditions Sentiment Index Falls to a 50-Year Record Low

Pocketbook issues continue to dominate consumer views of the economy.

If you don’t understand why, please click on some of the preceding links.

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