Retail Roars On Despite Runaway Inflation: Here’s How You Can Play It
It’s no secret that Americans love to shop.
Whether it’s clothes or cars, shopping malls or supermarkets, we seem to consume at a rate unmet by other countries. Add to that our recent Covid economy, and we only saw an increase in the purchasing prowess of many Americans thanks to the influx of stimulus cash and incentives to spend.
But then 2021 introduced inflation into the conversation. And 2022 has only increased that powerful force, driving up everything from gas prices to grocery bills.
With rising prices set to cost Americans an additional $5,200 this year (as estimated by Bloomberg), you’d assume demand for consumer goods would be on the decline.
Surprisingly though, this isn’t so.
In fact, yesterday the U.S. Census Bureau released its monthly report on this big-ticket area of the economy. And, according to those figures, sales at retail stores soared 0.9% last month.
Here’s a summary about that from The Wall Street Journal:
“Retail sales – a measure of spending at stores, online, and in restaurants – rose a seasonally adjusted 0.9% last month compared with March, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. That marked the fourth straight month of higher retail spending.
“Consumers spent more at restaurants and bars, and boosted expenditures on vehicles, furniture, clothing, and electronics. They cut spending sharply on gasoline in April as pump prices pulled back briefly from a run-up related to the war in Ukraine.”
This is pretty incredible considering our current circumstances (i.e. rising inflation) and our probable outlook, with more and more experts estimating that we’re on the brink of a recession.
So what should we make of all this?
First off, we have to assume reports like this will embolden the Fed to further hike interest rates. Since its previous actions don’t seem to be affecting demand, I imagine it will take this as a green light to continue curbing upward price pressure.
As for Wall Street, its reaction could honestly go either way. On the one hand, the stock market loves a spendy society. Then again, this increase in demand alludes to the fact that we haven’t yet hit peak inflation.
Fears of further inflation plus looming interest rate increases could make for a couple more turbulent months on the stock tickers.
My advice is what it’s always been and undoubtedly always will be: Don’t move your money based on Wall Street’s moods. Buy into quality companies, then play the long game with them.
In other words, don’t check your portfolio balance each time the news reports fire and brimstone. Take market reports for what they are, simply checking to make sure that the companies you’re investing in maintain sound balance sheets and structural responsibility.
More Non-REIT News to Know About
Yesterday, I reported on how McDonald’s (MCD) has decided to cut its losses and sell off its properties in Russia. Today, it seems as though another blue-chip corporation is following suit.
Nissan, one of Japan’s premier automakers – the creator of cars like the Altima, Armada, and Sentra – announced it’s writing off its Russian business for the foreseeable future.
The company had already stopped deliveries to Russia in March shortly after Putin invaded Ukraine. And then it ended production at its St. Petersburg plant from there. But now CEO Makoto Uchida says it’s gone so far as to write off its Russian business altogether through March 31, 2023.
As of the end of its last fiscal year (March 31, 2022), Nissan had lost $499 million already from its operations there, or lack thereof.
The war in Ukraine has already had significant economic impacts all over the globe. One example is highlighted in this Business Insider headline, as featured on Yahoo Finance this morning: “U.K. Inflation Surges to 40-Year High of 9% in April, as Soaring Energy and Food Prices Deepen Cost-of-Living Crisis.”
It reads:
“The reading was below economists’ forecasts for a rise of 9.1%, but still showed inflation running at its hottest since 1982.
“The bulk of the increase came from a sharp rise in utility bills after the government lifted a price cap in light of how much wholesale energy prices have risen, in part because of the war in Ukraine.
“The 12-month inflation ate for gas was 95.5%, while for electricity, it was 53.5%, official figures showed.”
And while we’re certain we’ll see more suffering before everything is said and done… it’s hard to predict exactly how much worse it will get from here.
The World According to REITs
Since we’re talking about the retail world, let’s look at a couple of solid retail REITs.
I like this subsector for several reasons. These companies can provide great diversification with decent dividend potential. Plus, they’ve proven themselves to be resilient even after being shut down for an entire summer or more.
With that in mind, here are a couple of my favorites…
Kimco Realty
Kimco Realty (KIM) owns and operates open-air community shopping centers, mostly in the supermarket space. It boasts a $14 billion market cap, 13.5% year-over-year growth, and a share price of about $24.
Kimco is one of the few companies that’s enjoyed the benefits of our retail surge even now. Its stock rose nearly 6% in the last week. So if you’re looking for a steady retail-oriented real estate investment, Kimco could be right up your alley.
Just make sure it’s properly priced before you pounce.
Simon Property Group
Simon Property Group (SPG) is one of the biggest retail REITs in the world. With a $38 billion market cap, $5.1 billion trailing 12-month revenue, and a dividend yield of 5.31%, it can be a great way to put a little diversity into your portfolio while earning some passive income.
Similar to KIM, its share price has seen upward movement in the last week, rising about a point and a half in the past five days. Based on multiple factors – including its sheer size, which gives it a lot of clout – I’m a fan of this blue-chip REIT.
I encourage you to do the numbers to see if it’s a fit for your portfolio.
Brad Thomas is the Editor of the Forbes Real Estate Investor.
Disclaimer: This article is intended to provide information to interested parties. ...
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