Daily Stock Pick: Senior Housing Properties

This week, I'm looking for the fourth healthcare representative of six for my Ivy portfolio.

My healthcare sector includes eleven industries all related to testing, diagnosing and treating what ails us: biotechnology; diagnostics & research; drug manufacturers - major and - specialty & generic; healthcare plans; long-term care facilities; healthcare REITs; medical care; medical devices; medical distribution; medical supplies.

Today I'm reviewing a small-cap health care REIT named Senior Housing Properties Trust. Its trading ticker symbol is SNH.

Senior Housing Properties Trust is an externally advised REIT that owns nearly 400 health-care real estate assets in approximately 40 states, diversified by care profile. Independent living represents 33% of net operating income, medical office 31%, assisted living 25%, skilled nursing facilities 4%, wellness centers 4%, and rehabilitation hospitals 2%. Nearly 100% of Senior Housing's revenue is derived from private-pay sources, as opposed to government-based Medicare and Medicaid.

SNH is managed by the operating subsidiary of The RMR Group Inc. (Nasdaq: RMR), or RMR Inc., an alternative asset management company that is headquartered in Newton, MA.

I use three key data points to gauge the value of any dividend equity-like Senior Housing Properties Trust:

(1) Price

(2) Dividends

(3) Returns

Besides those three, several other keys will finally unlock an equity or fund in which to invest.

Those first three primary keys, however, best tell whether a company has made, is making, and will make money.

SNH Price

Senior Housing's price per share closed at $8.07 yesterday. A year ago its price was $15.49. Price fell $7.42 or 48% in the past year.

Assuming Senior Housing's stock trades in the range of $5 to $15 this year, Senior Housing's recent $8.07 price could rise by $0.92 and go to $9.00 by mid-April, 2020.

SNH Dividends

Senior Housing's most recent Quarterly dividend was $0.39  declared January 18th and paid, February 21st.

That $0.39 Q dividend equates to an annual payout of $1.46 for a yield of 18% at yesterday's $8.07 closing price.

Gains For SNH?

Adding the $1.46 annual estimated dividend to my $0.92 estimate of Senior Housing's price upside shows a $2.38 potential gross annual gain, per share, which will be reduced by costs to trade those shares.

If we put a little over $1,000.00 today at the $8.07 recent stock price would buy us 124 Senior Housing Properties Trust shares.

A $10 broker fee paid half at purchase and half at sale costs $0.08 per share.

Subtract that $.08 brokerage cost from the estimated $2.38 gross annual gain leaves a net gain of $2.30 X 124 shares

= $285.20 or a 28.5% net gain on a $1,000.68 investment.

Therefore, Senior Housing Properties Trust, whose trading ticker symbol is SNH, now shows a possible net gain of  28.5% including an 18% dividend yield.

Seven brokers cover this stock:

Two say 'buy" SNH.

Two say "hold" SNH.

Two say SNH will "underperform".

One says "sell" SNH.

Their consensus score is 3.0 or "hold."

Therefore, you can look at  Senior Housing Properties Trust and see it has made money, is making money, and could net 28.5% gains including an 18% dividend yield. It could be more, it could be less.

The above speculation is based on past year performance. The actual results remain to be seen to determine if The Senior Housing Properties Trust is worth your time and money.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, ...

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