3 Safe Stocks To Buy To Avoid Any Brexit Fallout
The unexpected vote to leave the EU by the U.K. or so-called “Brexit” on June 23rd blindsided the global currency and equity markets. Europe suffered losses of approximately eight percent during that Friday as results became known across their bourses, the worst one-day of trading since the dark days of 2008.
The Pound dropped dramatically and now trades at its lowest levels since 1985 when Wham! and Like a Virgin were topping the pop charts. The 10-year Gilt has dipped below the one percent yield level; that is the first time this sovereign bond has breached that demarcation point.
Even though our markets have staged an impressive rally to fully recover their initial losses on Brexit, investors should not get complacent. What happens in Europe in the next few weeks and months will be critical for the direction of our markets for the rest of 2016.
It is doubtful there is any going back from this decision despite the griping and misgivings in the global press corps. Despite petitions for a revote and even one calling for London to secede from England and join the EU, democracy has spoken and the U.K. is heading out of the EU at some point in the near future.
This is going to be an arduous process and will not begin in earnest until the country invokes Article 50 which then triggers up to two years of intense negotiations on the details of what is likely to be a contentious divorce. High-level officials in France, Germany, and the EU voiced their desire to begin these talks as soon as possible over the weekend.
However, England still holds the cards as to when these discussions will commence. This will not happen until the Conservatives also known as the Tories pick a new leader to replace the departing David Cameron who bet his political future on a “remain” vote and lost. The Labour Party is also likely to get a new leader after its head ran a hapless campaign on behalf of the “Stay” faction.
SEE ALSO: Brexit Shocker: Sell These 3 Stocks Now
It is important that once these negotiations begin they proceed smoothly. This might be difficult as the major countries in Europe might be strident in their terms as they want to deter other countries that may contemplate a similar break in the future from the EU. However, the messier the divorce proceedings the more likely the global currency and equity markets get roiled, something Europe can ill-afford right now as it is still struggling to emerge from the financial crisis a half-dozen years after it ended.
It speaks volumes that the stock markets of some of the weakest members of the EU such as Italy, Spain, and Greece all slid more than 10% last Friday as the outcome of Brexit became known. The banks of Italy and Greece are especially vulnerable as they would be technically insolvent if not for the assistance of the European Central Bank.
Investors will also have to monitor for any signs of contagion on the back of this unexpected event that could trigger additional spikes of volatility in global markets. Already, Scotland is making noises of a revote on their independence now that the U.K. will no longer be a part of the EU. Extremist parties in countries like the Netherlands have already called for their own referendums on whether they should remain part of the European Union. Northern Ireland eventually deciding to rejoin Ireland is not out of the question at some point in the future. The countries in highlighted light red in the chart below might be next to hold referndums on if they should leave the EU as well.
Any subsequent decisions to split from the EU could be even messier given these countries share a common currency with the Eurozone, the Brits were smart enough never to give up the Pound. So what should an investor do other than carefully monitor this unfolding situation? First, hijack an old tradition from our English brethren. Keep Calm and Carry On. The ramifications of this vote are not going to be fully resolved in a week, a month or even one year hence.
You should also keep in mind that the S&P 500 only gets some two percent of its overall revenues from the U.K. which is only our seventh largest trading partner. The stronger dollar against major currencies triggered by this event will be a larger headwind to earnings. This is one reason investors should start to more heavily weight within their own portfolio small and mid-cap stocks that have little overseas exposure.
The large banks also will face major challenges. Falling yields mean smaller net interest margins, a key component to profits. In addition, those with major presences in the City of London such as Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) will face significant additional challenges navigating through whatever regulatory changes happen because of Brexit.
Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) is probably the best bet among major financial institutions due to its small footprint on the global stage and small trading operations. It is also the biggest mortgage originator in the country and the recovery in the housing market is a positive trend for it.
Finally, high-yield sectors should outperform the overall market due to their dividends and defensive attributes. The lodging REIT space continues to be my favorite part of the high-yield universe of stocks. Previously profiled concerns like Chatham Lodging Trust (NASDAQ: CLDT) and Diamondrock Hospitality (NYSE: DRH) should continue to be safe ports to weather any storms.
This will not be the last time we will cover this unfolding drama as it looks like Brexit will be the economic story of 2016 and possibly beyond.
One major event that could send the stock market straight down again is if another country in the EU decides to leave. This could send the market into a panic bringing share prices down. However, this makes for a great time to purchase shares for cheap. We have seen it already three times in the last year, the most recent being the Brexit sell-off and subsequent rally.
However, as we’ve seen during the last three sell-offs, the market does not discriminate which stocks will actually be affected by the Brexit. All stocks will be sold across the board making the companies that can continue to churn out revenue and earnings growth no matter what happens in Europe great bargains to add to your portfolio.
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