Week 44 of 2019 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) contracted according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. The economically intuitive sectors rolling averages remain in contraction - and declined further.

Analyst Opinion of the Rail Data

We review this data set to understand the economy. The intuitive sectors (total carloads removing coal, grain, and petroleum) contracted 7.2 % year-over-year for this week. We primarily use rolling averages to analyze the intuitive data due to weekly volatility - and the 4 week rolling year-over-year average for the intuitive sectors worsened from -5.7 % to -6.1 %.

When rail contracts, it suggests a slowing of the economy.

The following graph compares the four-week moving averages for carload economically intuitive sectors (red line) vs. total movements (blue line):

.Intermodal transport (containers or trailers on rail cars) growth was relatively strong until the beginning of 2019 - and now the year-to-date growth is deep in contraction.

This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity - and is not necessarily looking for clues of the profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads [including coal and grain] and intermodal combined).

A summary for this week from the AAR:

U.S. railroads originated 1,224,477 carloads in October 2019, down 8.4 percent, or 112,703 carloads, from October 2018. U.S. railroads also originated 1,331,944 containers and trailers in October 2019, down 7.8 percent, or 111,910 units, from the same month last year. Combined U.S. carload and intermodal originations in October 2019 were 2,556,421, down 8.1 percent, or 224,613 carloads and intermodal units from October 2018.

In October 2019, four of the 20 carload commodity categories tracked by the AAR each month saw carload gains compared with October 2018. These included: stone, clay & glass products, up 2,028 carloads or 5.2 percent; petroleum & petroleum products, up 1,543 carloads or 2.5 percent; and chemicals, up 603 carloads or 0.4 percent. Commodities that saw declines in October 2019 from October 2018 included: coal, down 65,554 carloads or 15 percent; motor vehicles & parts, down 8,833 carloads or 10.3 percent; and crushed stone, sand & gravel, down 8,121 carloads or 6.8 percent.

"Sluggish growth abroad and trade developments are weighing on business investment, exports, and manufacturing. Unfortunately, those are precisely what drive much of the freight carried by U.S. railroads, and their weakness goes a long way in explaining why rail traffic is down right now," said AAR Senior Vice President John T. Gray. "Railroads are hopeful that policymakers here and abroad will take sensible actions aimed at accelerating growth and removing the uncertainty that's constraining many economic sectors."

Excluding coal, carloads were down 47,149 carloads, or 5.2 percent, in October 2019 from October 2018. Excluding coal and grain, carloads were down 40,496 carloads, or 5.1 percent.

Total U.S. carload traffic for the first 10 months of 2019 was 11,088,723 carloads, down 4.3 percent, or 497,121 carloads, from the same period last year; and 11,721,870 intermodal units, down 4.5 percent, or 553,863 containers and trailers, from last year.

Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 44 weeks of 2019 was 22,810,593 carloads and intermodal units, a decrease of 4.4 percent compared to last year.

Week Ending November 2, 2019

Total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 510,012 carloads and intermodal units, down 8.8 percent compared with the same week last year.

Total carloads for the week ending November 2 were 245,319 carloads, down 8.9 percent compared with the same week in 2018, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 264,693 containers and trailers, down 8.6 percent compared to 2018.

Two of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2018. They were grain, up 1,406 carloads, to 21,798; and petroleum and petroleum products, up 10 carloads, to 12,677. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2018 included coal, down 15,406 carloads, to 72,645; metallic ores and metals, down 3,485 carloads, to 20,347; and nonmetallic minerals, down 3,107 carloads, to 33,301.

The middle row in the table below removes coal, grain, and petroleum from the changes in the railcar counts as these commodities are not economically intuitive.

[click on the graph below to enlarge]