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Are you stressed out over food?
 

Major Stress
 

An AP NORC poll shows Food, housing, and health care costs are a source of major stress for many people

About half of the public consider the cost of groceries to be a major source of stress in their life right now, and 19% of those concerned have used deferred payment services to fund groceries at some point.

Overall, 29% of the public have ever used deferred payment services, sometimes called Buy Now Pay Later, for health care, entertainment, groceries, or restaurant meals. Use of these services is higher among adults under age 45 compared with older adults.

People experiencing economic stress are much more likely to use these services.

Fifty-three percent of adults report that grocery expenses are a major source of stress, and another 33% say they are a minor stress. About half also identify housing costs as a major concern. Additionally, 43% express stress related to their personal income and savings. Health care costs are also a major source of stress for 4 in 10 adults .Fewer report major stress from debt or the cost of child care.

Overall, 75% say one or more of these financial factors cause them major stress. These individuals with significant stressors in their life are more likely to use Buy Now Pay Later services than those who report minor or no stress. For example, 21% of people who experience any major stress have used Buy Now Pay Later services for medical or dental expenses, whereas 8% of those with minor or no stress.

86 percent of people stressed over food was somewhat of a surprise to me. 74 percent stressed over housing was not a surprise.

There will be cutbacks elsewhere.
 

Stressed Out Young Adults
 

For adults under the age of 45, 56 percent have major stress over the cost of housing, 55 percent over the cost of groceries, and 51 percent over how much they get paid.

World Food Prices Two Year High

Reuters reports World food prices at 2-year high on rising meat and edible oils.

World food commodity prices rose in July to their highest in over two years, as a jump for vegetable oils and record levels for meat outweighed falling cereal, dairy and sugar prices, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization said.
The FAO Food Price Index, which serves as a global benchmark for food commodity prices, averaged 130.1 points in July, a 1.6% increase from June, FAO said.

That was the highest reading since February 2023, though the index was 18.8% below its peak of March 2022, which followed Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

FAO’s meat price index hit a new all-time high of 127.3 points, up 1.2% from its previous peak in June, as strong import demand from China and the United States boosted beef and sheep meat prices, the agency said.

Brace for Higher Food Prices

The Council on Foreign Relations says Consumers Should Brace Themselves for Higher Food Prices

Despite a rebound in gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter, U.S. growth in the first half of the year has clearly slowed. Meanwhile, the consumer price index (CPI) report in June registered a four-month high of 2.7 percent over the previous year. CFR Senior Fellow Rebecca Patterson foresees an increased likelihood of stagflation.

A particularly sensitive part of the CPI is the food index, which increased 0.3 percent in June 2025 and is up 3 percent year over year. Although this is not a staggering increase, rising food prices are a long-term trend that slowly tightens families’ weekly budgets. Many consumers are feeling anxious about prices at grocery stores and are already shifting their spending habits.

Looming tariffs present a potential threat to this system and American produce distributors. Under current USCMA trade rules, about 63 percent of agricultural imports from Canada and Mexico into the United States are exempt from tariffs. Food imports not covered by USMCA could be subject to increased tariffs threatened by the Trump administration, depending on the outcome of continuing negotiations and court cases. When asked about the future of the USMCA, which is up for renegotiation in July 2026, President Donald Trump explained that the agreement was a “transitional deal,” creating even greater uncertainty for American importers.

CPI Report on Tuesday

The BLS CPI report for July is Tuesday morning.

From a year-over-year perspective, the number to beat is 0.14 percent. A monthly increase above 0.14 percent will cause the year-over-year numbers to rise.

The Bloomberg Econoday consensus is 0.2 percent month-over-month and the consensus year-over-year estimate is for the CPI to rise from 2.7 percent to 2.8 percent.

I expect energy to be nearly flat. If so, food and shelter will determine the outcome.

Shelter is 35.47 percent of the CPI. Food is 13.64 percent. If food is up as much as the FAO Food Price Index, the CPI rates to be hot unless shelter is very cooperative.

Recall that Trump promised Lower Prices ‘On Day One.’

How’s that set of promises working out.

Is Homeowners Insurance Understated in the CPI? Shop Around!

On August 11, asked Is Homeowners Insurance Understated in the CPI? Shop Around!

If you own a home, what percent of your income is spent on your homeowners’ insurance? Under 1/2 of 1 percent?

Not Counted

The BLS does not include insurance in the CPI as the average person understands insurance.

Nor does the BLS include property taxes or home prices directly.

The CPI as a measure of inflation is very understated.

Related Posts

July 15, 2025: Year-Over-Year CPI Jumps 0.3 Percentage Points to 2.7 percent

Month-over-month and year-over-year the CPI rose 0.3 percent.

July 31, 2025: No Improvement in the Fed’s Preferred Measure of Inflation for 8 Months

Core PCE is up 2.8 percent from a year ago, no change in 8 months.

Q: Does the PCE count property taxes or insurance?
A: Of course not , silly, for the same ridiculous reasons as the CPI.

Supposedly, only consumer expenses matter and neither property taxes nor insurance are consumer expenses.

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