Oil Prices Continue To Fall On Fears Of An Oversupply

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As of Tuesday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.99%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.62%. The technology index Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.94%. The market continued to be supported by expectations of several Fed interest rate cuts, which improved corporate profit projections and stimulated demand for growth stocks. After a brief pause, the semiconductor sector emerged among the leaders once again. Shares of Micron, Texas Instruments, Analog Devices, and NXP jumped by 5.6–10% as investors returned to chip suppliers amid improving sentiment in the technology segment. Markets generally took the geopolitical news from Venezuela calmly, considering that the US capture of the country’s leader is unlikely to lead to a prolonged regional shock. However, the realignment of expectations continued to reflect in the energy sector. Shares of Chevron, previously seen as one of the key beneficiaries of a possible resumption of US access to Venezuelan oil, turned downward and fell by 4.5%.

Equity markets in Europe mostly rose on Tuesday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.09%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed with an increase of 0.32%, the Spanish Index IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.19%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed higher by 1.18%. On Tuesday, the DAX Index hit a new all-time high, extending its winning streak to six consecutive sessions. The market was supported by steady risk appetite despite investors’ continued attention to geopolitical events in Venezuela, as well as the release of new macroeconomic statistics for Europe. A key factor was the German inflation data: preliminary estimates showed a slowdown in consumer price growth in December to 1.8% y/y, which was below expectations (2.0%) and dropped below the ECB target level for the first time since September 2024. This strengthened expectations for more dovish rhetoric from the European Central Bank in 2026. At the same time, final PMI data confirmed a further loss of momentum in the German private sector, indicating persistent weakness in economic activity.

On Wednesday, silver (XAG) dropped below 80 dollars per ounce, snapping a three-day rally as investors began to take profits after prices rose to record levels. Additional pressure was exerted by the strengthening of the dollar amid expectations of key US macroeconomic data that could influence further Fed decisions, primarily Friday’s labor market report. At the same time, expectations for monetary policy easing generally remain: Fed board member Stephen Miran allowed for the possibility of sharper rate cuts to support the economy, and the market still prices in at least two rate cuts this year.

WTI oil prices fell by more than 1% to 56 dollars per barrel, continuing the previous session’s decline following President Donald Trump’s statement that Venezuela would transfer 30 to 50 million barrels of oil to the US. Although the volume appears limited, markets fear that regular supplies of Venezuelan oil could increase the supply glut in an already oversupplied market and heighten pressure on prices. Meanwhile, API data showed an unexpected contraction in US oil inventories by 2.8 million barrels for the last week, which contrasts with projections of inventory growth and somewhat contained the price drop.

Asian markets mostly rose yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.32%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 1.01%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) added 1.38%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.52%. On Wednesday, Chinese indices opened with a decline, largely due to profit-taking. Technology and consumer companies suffered the greatest losses as investors took a wait-and-see approach ahead of the release of Chinese inflation data (CPI and PPI) later this week. Nevertheless, the scale of the correction remained limited thanks to signals of support from the People’s Bank of China. The regulator confirmed its readiness to cut interest rates and reserve requirement ratios, strengthen counter-cyclical measures, and improve credit conditions to support the slowing economy.

The Australian dollar strengthened to around 0.675 US dollars on Wednesday, reaching a 15-month high, as the prospects for interest rate hikes in the near term remained stable despite a slight decrease in inflation noted in the latest report. Data showed that the headline Consumer Price Index rose in November by 3.4% in annual terms compared to 3.8% in October and below the expectations of 3.6%, while the closely watched trimmed mean figure decreased from 3.3% to 3.2%. These figures remained significantly above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s target range of 2-3%, which maintains the likelihood of rate hikes next month. Attention now turns to the full fourth-quarter inflation report, which will be published at the end of this month. Analysts warn that an increase in core inflation by 0.9% or more could prompt the RBA to tighten policy at its February meeting.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,944.82 +42.77 (+0.62%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,462.08 +484.90 (+0.99%)

DAX (DE40) 24,892.20 +23.51 (+0.10%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,122.73 +118.16 (+1.18%)

USD Index 98.60 +0.33% (+0.33%)

News feed for: 2026.01.07

  • Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (HIGH)
  • German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
  • Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
  • US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
  • US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
  • US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2); – USD (HIGH)
  • Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2); – CAD (MED)
  • US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2). – WTI (HIGH)

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Disclosure: This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, ...

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