November 2019 Construction Spending Year-Over-Year Growth Continues To Trend Upward

The headlines say construction spending improved month-over-month. Our analysis shows the rolling averages improved.

Analyst Opinion of Construction Spending

The rolling averages improved. Also note that inflation is grabbing hold, and the inflation-adjusted numbers are slightly in contraction.

Consider this a better report relative to last month.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Econintersect analysis:

  • Growth accelerated 1.4 % month-over-month and up 3.9 % year-over-year.
  • Inflation-adjusted construction spending down 0.4 % year-over-year.
  • 3 month rolling average is 2.4 % above the rolling average one year ago which accelerated 1.6 % month-over-month. As the data is noisy (and has so much backward revision) - the moving averages likely are the best way to view construction spending.
  • Backward revision for the last 3 months was generally upward.

(Click on image to enlarge)

US Census Analysis:

  • Up 0.6 % month-over-month and up 4.1 % (was published +1.1 % last month) year-over-year.
  • Market expected from Econoday 0.1 % to 1.0 % month-over-month (consensus +0.3 %).

Construction spending (unadjusted data) was declining year-over-year for 48 straight months until November 2011. That was four years of headwinds for GDP.

(Click on image to enlarge)

This month's headline statement from US Census:

Construction spending during November 2019 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,324.1 billion, 0.6 percent (±1.0 percent)* above the revised October estimate of $1,316.8 billion. The November figure is 4.1 percent (±1.5 percent) above the November 2018 estimate of $1,271.4 billion. During the first eleven months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,201.6 billion, 0.8 percent (±1.2 percent)* below the $1,211.8 billion for the same period in 2018.

PRIVATE CONSTRUCTION - Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $985.5 billion, 0.4 percent (±0.7 percent)* above the revised October estimate of $981.1 billion. Residential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $536.1 billion in November, 1.9 percent (±1.3 percent) above the revised October estimate of $526.3 billion. Nonresidential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $449.4 billion in November, 1.2 percent (±0.7 percent) below the revised October estimate of $454.7 billion.

PUBLIC CONSTRUCTION - In November, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $338.6 billion, 0.9 percent (±1.5 percent)* above the revised October estimate of $335.7 billion. Educational construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $83.9 billion, virtually unchanged from (±1.5 percent)* the revised October estimate of $84.0 billion. Highway construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $96.4 billion, 2.2 percent (±3.9 percent)* above the revised October estimate of $94.3 billion.

1 2
View single page >> |

Disclaimer: No content is to be construed as investment advise and all content is provided for informational purposes only.The reader is solely responsible for determining whether any investment, ...

more
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience. Users' ratings are only visible to themselves.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.