Job Data Continues To Indicate More Equity Gains
“Davidson” reports:
The ASA Staffing Index and the Gallup Job Creation Index which are weekly releases have a history of providing early indications of the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics by 9mos-12mos. That these weekly indicators continue to reflect uptrends in place since 2009 is positive for equities and negative for fixed Income. The ASA Staffing Index 2014 Trend Line continues to track just above the 2007 trend while the Gallup Job Creation Index at 27-30 range is at its highest level.
Even though the Fed and geopolitics have kept the 10yr Treasury rate low(similar in Germany, Italy and etc), home building and construction has been inching higher with specific and general improvement in employment and of course equity prices.
The economy has podded along even with considerable hew and cry from Wall Street advisors. I remain of the opinion that the 10yr Treasury rate will rise as investors seek higher returns. This in my experience will provide the credit spread necessary for banks to expand lending and further stir investors to buy stocks/sell fixed income.
All looks quite good for equities the next 5yr-7yr time span ($SPY) . A significant swing in investor psychology is likely with equity prices to follow in my opinion.
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