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Let’s discuss bogus numbers and bogus reporting.

News Home Sales and Homes for Sale from Census Department, chart by Mish

The New Residential Construction report for March came out yesterday. Let’s peek inside.

New Home Sales

• Sales of new single-family houses in March 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 724,000.
• This is 7.4 percent (± 20.5 percent) above the February 2025 rate of 674,000, and is 6.0 percent (± 14.5 percent) above the March 2024 rate of 683,000.

For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply

• The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of March 2025 was 503,000. This is 0.6 percent (± 1.3 percent) above the February 2025 estimate of 500,000, and is 7.9 percent (± 5.3 percent) above the March 2024 estimate of 466,000.
• This represents a supply of 8.3 months at the current sales rate. The months’ supply is 6.7 percent (± 15.6 percent) below the February 2025 estimate of 8.9 months, and is 1.2 percent (± 13.3 percent) above the March 2024 estimate of 8.2 months.

Sales Price

• The median sales price of new houses sold in March 2025 was $403,600. This is 1.9 percent (± 6.1 percent) below the February 2025 price of $411,500, and is 7.5 percent (± 8.3 percent) below the March 2024 price of $436,400.
• The average sales price of new houses sold in March 2025 was $497,700. This is 1.0 percent (± 7.6 percent) above the February 2025 price of $492,700, and is 4.7 percent (± 7.1 percent) below the March 2024 price of $522,500.

New Home Sales Detail

Bogus Numbers and Bogus Reporting

The margin of error on new sales is 7.4 percent (± 20.5 percent). The baseline numbers are garbage.

My main gripe though is something that happens at turns. Sales numbers do not include cancellations.

New Home Sales are recorded at signing, existing-home sales at closing. So existing-home sales include cancellations but new home sales don’t.

At the start of turn downs sales are overstated and at the bottom of the market sales are understated. Factor in margins of error and you have garbage.

New Home Sales vs Existing Home Sales

New Home Sales vs Housing Starts

I will discuss homebuilder speculation in a separate post.

Related Posts

March 15, 2025: The Case-Shiller Home Price Index Hits Another New Record High, Thank the Fed

Here is a batch of new charts.

Prices are high but few are buying.

April 19, 2025: Housing Starts Drop 11.4 Percent in March from Negative Revision

Homebuilders had another miserable month but permits jumped 15.8 percent.

April 24, 2025: Existing-Home Sales Plunge 5.9 Percent, NAR Claims “Solid Footing”

Credit NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun for the Hoot of the Day.

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