Motio Research's initial estimate of U.S. median household income in January 2025 is $82,373. This figure is $164 (0.2%) lower than the firm's initial estimate of median household income of $82,537 in December 2024.

Motio Research's estimates are based on income data collected by the U.S. Census Bureau through its monthly Current Population Survey, which are conducted in the month following the month in question. The firm adjusts its monthly estimates to account for the effects of seasonality and inflation in its data, presenting its results in the form of an index with the median household income of January 2010 assigned a value of 100. The initial value of the firm's U.S. Real Median Household Income Index for January 2025 is 116.6.

The following screenshot of Motio Research's interactive chart shows how this index has changed from January 2010 through January 2025:

Motio Research also generates household income estimates for the 25th and 75th percentiles in addition to its 50th percentile (median) estimate. The firm reports the households at these positions in the income distribution saw increases over their November levels. Here is what they reported in their 19 February 2025 press release:

The real 25th percentile household income index dropped by 1.2% in January, reaching a value of 115.9 (or $41,254). Over teh past three months, the lower-quartile index has decreased by 1.4%, now standing 0.9% below its value from a year ago. It also remains below its pre-Covid peak of 117.7, highlighting a continued lag in income recovery for lower-income households.

At the upper quartile, the household income index rose by 0.3% in January, climbing to 121.3 (or $148,066). This marks a 0.4% increase over the past three months and a 1.3% rise compared to the same period last year, further extending its lead above the pre-Covid peak of 117.6.

Motio's press release notes its January 2025 quartile and median estimates "underscore divergent trends in household income." They report that diverging trend has existed since September 2024, during which lower-income households have seen income erosion while higher-income households have registered gains.

Analyst's Notes

Political Calculations produces estimates of median household income that complement the monthly survey-based estimates produced by Motio Research, which we derive from aggregate income data produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Our initial estimate of median household income in January 2025 based upon our alternate methodology is $82,797, which is $3 less than our initial December 2024 estimate of $82,800. Our median household income estimate is $424 (0.5%) higher than Motio Research's January 2025 estimate.

The latest update to Political Calculations' chart tracking Median Household Income in the 21st Century shows the nominal (red) and inflation-adjusted (blue) trends for median household income in the United States from January 2000 through January 2025. The inflation-adjusted figures are presented in terms of constant January 2025 U.S. dollars and are not seasonally adjusted, unlike the data used to produce Motio Research's Household Income index:

Political Calculations' monthly median household income estimates are derived from the Bureau of Economic Analysis' monthly aggregate wage and salary estimates for the U.S. population. For January 2025, this data includes substantial downward revisions to aggregate income estimates for July (-0.27%), August (-0.46%), September (-0.54%), October (-0.60%), November (-0.56%), and December 2024 (-0.58%).

The revised data indicates the previous six full months of income data had been inflated following September 2024's substantial revision.

The effect of the downward aggregate revisions in these six months is to lower our estimates of median household income during this period. In the case of December 2024's initial estimate of $82,800, which we referenced earlier in these notes, the newly revised estimate for this month is $82,619, some $181 lower than the initial estimate.

References

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Population. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 28 February 2025. Accessed: 28 February 2025.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Compensation of Employees, Received: Wage and Salary Disbursements. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 28 February 2025. Accessed: 28 February 2025.

U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers - (CPI-U), U.S. City Average, All Items, 1982-84=100. Not seasonally adjusted. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 12 February 2025. Accessed: 12 February 2025.

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