Image Source: Pixabay

There’s been a 4-week upswing in claims with the current week having the largest number of additional claims. There are 31,000 more claims this week than a month ago. Another month like this and we’ll be looking at the highest number of claims in the past 2 years. The absolute level of claims is not concerning, just noting the shift in trend here. Continuing trends this week are higher than the 4-week moving average as well. This would indicate that finding a new job is getting a bit harder. This is a new uptrend in continuing claims over the last 6 weeks coming out of the previously referred to strong September. A sustained trend of the current week’s continuing claims above the 4-week average is not good. A pop or drop in initial claims or a definitive trend change, can be an alarm bell for employment. But initial claims don’t usually exhibit this particular characteristic where the trend chang coincides with the current week sustaining above or below the 4 week average as an indicator of underlying strength or weakness .

More By This Author:

Macro: Retail Sales
Macro: Markets — Banks Exit Overnight Trade And Extend Duration
Macro: NFIB Small Business Optimism - Pessimistic On Earnings Trend