US Small Business Optimism fell for a fourth straight month in February, reports NFIB. The latest reading “is the fourth consecutive month above the 51-year average of 98 and is 4.4 points below its most recent peak of 105.1 in December.” The Uncertainty Index that’s part of the survey rose four points to 104 – the second highest recorded reading. “Uncertainty is high and rising on Main Street and for many reasons,” says NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Those small business owners expecting better business conditions in the next six months dropped and the percent viewing the current period as a good time to expand fell, but remains well above where it was in the fall.”

US and foreign stock markets fall as concerns deepen over the possible economic impact from Trump’s tariff plans. “Trump is keeping political leaders guessing regarding his next moves on tariffs, but the problem is that he’s also keeping investors guessing and that’s reflected in the dire market mood,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at financial services firm KCM Trade.

A possible government shutdown is approaching at the end of the day on Friday, Mar. 14, if Congress doesn’t pass legislation by the end of the week. It’s unclear if House Republicans will have the votes to enact a short-term funding bill.

Americans are more worried about the economic outlook and expected higher inflation for the year-ahead outlook, based on a survey in February, according to the New York Federal Reserve. The Survey of Consumer Expectations reportj also shows inflation for the year-ahead estimate ticked up to 3.1% while the projected level of inflation three and five years from now was unchanged at 3%. The Fed’s inflation target is 2%.

Bitcoin’s volatile price gyrations appear to be a useful indicator for measuring the risk appetite for the equities market and beyond, according to a note from TMC Research, a unit of The Milwaukee Company: “As the latest example, bitcoin began turning lower in mid-February while the stock market (S&P 500 Index) was at or near record highs (see chart below). This could be random behavior, but reviewing the return correlation between equities and bitcoin shows a closer relationship in recent years.”

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